In your examples, the transitions were relatively gradual and the new technologies or resources were in increasingly wide use as the old declined. Yes, there are nuclear power plants and solar installations and wind power, etc, but between lethargy, greed, inertia and expense, I can't see a viable alternative to oil that can come on-line before we arrive at the cliff.
If there are a total max. 2.8 trillion barrels of oil in the world (proven + high estimate of unproven), even at constant rates of consumption, there are only 23 years worth left. If only proven reserves are used, they would run out in less than 10 years. Given an increasing level of consumption of only 1.8%/year, the figures drop to 7 years and 18 years.
Looks a lot like a cliff to me.
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re: Incidentally, if your theories were correct...
The whole thread (28 posts)
- An Orgy of Fuel Consumption
- Orgy? No... sounds more like self abuse.... (n/t)
- Let's mandate
- Moved from "Space"
- Mad dogs and Englishmen...