Assuming your 2.8 trillion number is correct, the latest figure (2006) I have for daily world oil consumption (Excel file, sorry) is about 84.6 million barrels a day.
This figures out to more like 90 years.
Again, this assumes constant usage, an unlikely scenario, but if the price stays high and supplies continue to dwindle, the most likely use curve may end up averaging out to current usage or even lower.
I have this reference, which lists estimates for undiscovered conventional sources at 3 trillion barrels. This is a statistical estimate, and I haven't been able to nail the definitions down tightly enough to see how that compares to your number.
If we go only by proven reserves, it comes out at around 1.2 to 1.3 trillion barrels, or 39 to 42 years.
I naturally welcome any additional data or corrections here, especially on math or definitions.
It goes without saying that additional exploration and development of oil resources wouldn't suck in any of these scenarios.
Off Topic » in reply to re: Incidentally, if your theories were correct...
Numbers
The whole thread (28 posts)
- An Orgy of Fuel Consumption
- Orgy? No... sounds more like self abuse.... (n/t)
- Let's mandate
- Moved from "Space"
- Mad dogs and Englishmen...
