During the Cold War, it always occurred to me that the only thing worse than a Communist USSR and Red China would have been capitalist dictatorships on the other side of the Iron Curtain. Those countries are our natural rivals and competitors, and events have borne out that ideology had little to do with the relations between East and West. The only difference now with what we had then is that those nations are no longer economic cripples. Of course, in those days, the economic and political changes in those countries we've experienced since were simply inconceivable. You have to be careful what you wish for, because you might get it, and the post-Cold War world is a perfect example. The 21st century is rapidly shaping up into the pre-World War I scenario of competing economic imperialist powers: big industrial states struggling for markets and resources. We have all been here before, in fact, we never left it in the first place.

The dynamic transcends ideology, big nations simply act like hungry, hostile amoebas. And now we can add a unified Europe to the mix, as well as a host of competent second-tier states in the Pacific Rim and perhaps the middle east. The world today looks more and more like Europe at the turn of the 20th century; the details may be different but the same tensions and their underlying causes remain. The last century, the Age of Ideology, introduced fascism, communism, and the corporate welfare state as competing models, but these were more of an attempt to explain events and a means of preparing populations for conflict than accurate descriptions of what was actually going on. To this day, ideologues still rely on these oversimplifications to try and get their programs passed, on both left and right. We still hear words like "imperialism" based on the old colonial model of the mercantilistic era, or "Communism" bandied about. I suppose it provides a measure of justification and emotional support, but it also is misleading and gives us a false sense of security. The implication is that if only one system reigned, peace and cooperation would be inevitable. I can still remember when conservatives were telling us "democracies never are aggressors", and that peaceful global trade makes conflict unprofitable, therefore unlikely. In 1914, similar comforting analyses were still being propagated to prove how war was impossible.

We're in for a rough ride, although it certainly isn't one we haven't been on before. I personally feel that it is essential that we keep in mind that ideology has little to do with all this, nations compete, and they fight, for systemic reasons and blaming it on the other guy's political ideology is at best an excuse, at worst, a delusion. We must remove ideology from our political calculations, it can only serve to pull us into conflicts that do not serve our interests, and to be reluctant about entering those where our survival is at stake.