Larry,

I have given you plenty of leeway to name your own numbers based on your own preferences. You are still avoiding the question. How long would the payback take? If you and your "acquaintences" think you can throw out Zubrin and NASA estimates with the wave of a hand you obviously ought to be able to come up with alternatives easily.

Funny how it appears you think every published estimate is phoney, but you have none yourself on which to base a cost benefit ratio. If NASA's SEI numbers are inflated why wouldn't the Mars numbers be? If the Mars numbers are inflated why are Zubrin's too low? If you can't come up with numbers on your own please stop pretending you know more than those that have.

I work in a chemical plant and have participated in over ten startups. The idea that you will start up a processing plant on the Moon without humans present is ridiculous. This has never been done and start-ups are a pain in the ass even with people present to investigate and compensate for unsuspected problems. Most people avoid them like the plague. Your only hope would be a modular approach where the entire system was built and tested on Earth then shipped to the Moon. Even then several attempts may be needed because the testing would all have been done in a simulated environment (similar to how we would need to do Earth based simulations for a Mars Direct type program).

Regards,
Mark