Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to Another opinion on Iraq

Balkanization

Another factor in the "liberating" of Iraqis is that they are a nation of powerful separate factions held together by a strong government smart enough to maintain some loose ties. It seems very similar to the former Yugoslavia, which disintegrated into a well-known mess after Tito died.

The Iraqi opposition cannot get along as well as the vaunted Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, which could at least present a united front. And we all know how well Afghanistan is accepting democracy, what with various warlords controlling most of the country and the central government propped up only with American troops.

What the Arabs seem to know is that Iraq isn't like Japan or Germany, with a strong sense of unity and common culture. And that if you topple the system which provides stability it would take a brutal regime, either outside or indigenous, to provide stability again.

Heck, the Kurds are just itching to form an autonomous state, and Turkey is terrified of that, has as a condition of it's support one NOT be formed. How will the US prevent their secession, and force them to cooperate with a central government?

And how long would it take for money from oil to flow to Iraqis after the oil barons, Turkey, and the other countries which are being bribed to participate are paid? Long time, I'm afraid. If ever.

It's a Pandora's box, the opening of which will be easy. Don't expect liberty, democracy and gratitude to flow out except in syncophantic propaganda.

Arf

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