My first call on the first incident was an accidental hit by Iraqi antiaircraft missiles. During Gulf War I, a huge amount of damage was done this way. I was already certain, given the location and what I know of our weaponry, that an accidental hit was not likely.

Then I heard about two shallow craters, which implied two "misses," and also implied an explosion that did not take place directly on the ground, but a short distance above it. I do not know what the fusing arrangements are on an Iraqi antiaircraft missile: impact or proximity? A missile exploding on ground contact would leave a very respectable hole.

More suspicious now, but I was still willing to assume the mistaken Iraqi hit scenario.

Now, the exact same scenario repeats, and is widely and enthusiastically reported by Iraq. As you say, still inside the range of sheer probability. But it's starting to stink.

A third point on this particular graph line would be highly instructive. I like to think they're not stupid enough to blow up a third marketplace. Maybe an orphanage or hospital full of patients?