A few points...
This is what I posted to the Calpundit website:
Forgive me if someone else pointed this out, but the baseline actually shows a surplus by 2013. A surplus of 211 billion dollars, according to the CBO paper you reference.
Second, the budget projections were made last August. At that time, they projected a 2003 deficit of $401 billion and a 2004 deficit of $480 billion.
The actual deficit in 2003 turned out to be $374 billion, $27 billion less than the projection. Nothing to write home about, but at the turn of the fiscal year (October) the economic indicators were just beginning to take off big time. And it's worth remembering that the CBO projection was made only two or three months before the actual numbers came in, so less than three months after the CBO projection, there's already almost 7 percent error. I would be very surprised if the deficit for 2004 turns out to be as high as $480 billion.
Third, given the assumptions made by the CBO, that light blue area in the graph represents money kept in the productive private sector over that period of time. Theoretically, I believe, (my math is rusty) the total amount over the nine years would have something to do with the area of the light blue part. Might be fun to add it up, and ponder what effect this would have on the economy.