You forgot to include hoaxes and insanity
JimO said:
"Time will tell -- two-thirds of what's already been published, typically, is misunderstanding, hype, and bad guesses."
Actually I would say that 1/2 of UFO sightings are hoaxes, 3/8 are simple insanity (schizoid hallucinations) and the remaining 1/8 are misunderstanding, hype, and bad guesses.
My wild ass guess is that interstellar spacecraft based upon machine intelligence have visited our Solar System less than five times in its 4 billion year history and probably never during the short period that human beings have been around.
Gary