...that those who won successfully manipulated the issues better than your side did, especially when the election is a close one.

Which is to say that some people voted against Kerry because they believed the Swift Boat people, some people voted against Kerry because they are reluctant to change administrations during wartime, some people voted against Kerry because their religious leaders implied it was in God's best interest to do so, some people voted for Bush because they think he's a swell guy, and so forth.

The Bush win was certainly more decisive than his first one, but hardly an overwhelming defeat for the Democrats if you look at pure numbers.

The Congress and Senate are more problematic. Congressional elections are almost always more personal, because Congressional districts are small enough for candidates to become known more personally to the voters. The Senate was targetted by a very well financed Republican National Committee.

The biggest problem is letting the opposition control your message. This is something the Democrats have forgotten how to prevent. They will need to work on that.