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Laurie Street — (archived)

World population in 1918: 1.8 billion
Current world population: 6.5 billion
Infection rate of 1918 influenza pandemic: 80% (that is, 80 percent of everyone in the world was infected with the virus)
Mortality rate of the 1918 influenza: 3%-5%
Mortality rate of H5N1 in humans so far: 54%

With an 80% infection rate and 54% mortality rate, a pandemic today would result in 2.8 billion deaths. Unimaginable consequences.

Bill Frist, taking from a CBO study, estimated that, with "only" a 30% infection rate and 2.5% mortality rate, the US economy would take a $675 billion hit.

I guess if one has to look for a sliver lining in the pandemic cloud, halving the world population in a few months would cut greenhouse gas emissions drastically and also reduce the demand for oil, perhaps resulting in lower crude prices.

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