You've brought up some good points I hadn't considered, and I've been thinking long and hard about this affair over the last few days. This is only reinforcement of the idea that this situation is evolving to the point where it is getting harder and harder to predict, which is just another way of saying that it is almost out of control.

I do disagree with you on one point though, I'm not sure a regional multi-player war in the middle east would be such a bad thing for us, as long as we're not stuck in the middle of it. After half a century of blaming us for all their problems, the Arab world is going to be begging the Great Satan to come back in and sort out the mess. I would think it would be in our interest to prevent this conflict, but since I don't think we have the resources in place to do it (short of just hanging on indefintely taking casualties and abuse as we are now) then best it happen after we leave, and that all our potential enemies be fully engaged in fighting each other.

Just a few weeks ago I was thinking it would be best to give the "surge" a chance to succeed, it would either do so, or if it didn't, we could pull out of Iraq right after the '09 inauguration with a clear conscience, knowing we gave it our best shot. Bush would either vindicate his strategy or it would be forever discredited, but in either case it would be over. Now I'm starting to wonder if maybe events will take an unexpected turn and we may not get a choice. We are poorly equipped to police a civil war between tribal factions; are we in any shape to survive a major conventional struggle involving several countries?

I kinda feel like I went with my friend George to the toughest bar in town, and after having a few too many, he jumped on the table and shouted, "my buddy and me can whip any biker in this joint".