Iran will be no pushover. Unlike Iraq, which we had been bombing and photographing for years and which had been disarmed and smashed by the first Gulf War and by aerial and economic blockade, Iran has an airforce and a real navy, with American built frigates. It also has anti-ship missiles and an army of hundreds of thousands of men. And it has an intact air-defense system. The 100 day bombing campaign against Iraq (mostly conducted by land-based aircraft in Saudi) used up about half our supply of smart muinitions. Even if we have replaced them, we simply don't have enough to deal with a big, intact, defended country that we know next to nothing about.

Iraq has a massive population and industrial base and it will have no shortage of allies willing to help, America will get no cooperation from others in the region. America will not have any heavy land forces available (we're already bogged down in Iraq as it is) and most of our armour and artillery is in no shape to respond to a conventional military assault across the border, certainly not launch one of its own. Our one advantage, carrier task forces, are at the end of their supply lines and forced to operate in restricted waters. The Persian Gulf is a long, shallow, narrow canal which is needed to supply all our troops in the Gulf states, it's a naval supply choke point and the only one we've got. Just a look at the chart is enough to give an admiral the shivers.

But there is no need to take my word for it. It's already common knowledge in Washington that the Pentagon is not too keen about getting involved in Iran, even if it were just a quick in-and-out to knock out the nukes. We're stretched too thin all over the world, and even in Iraq alone it's clear we're burning the candle at both ends, our effort there is unsustainable. Even during the Cold War days, when our military was much bigger than it is now and when we had bases all over Asia, wars in places like Korea and Vietnam tied us up, Iran is a big country.

We could go to war with Iran and win, but not not for a long time yet and not without much more preparation. And it would be a long and bloody fight. War is not an option now, not for political reasons, but for military reasons.