We spend so much time here talking about what ought to be happening in Iraq, I thought it might be more worthwhile to consider instead what will probably happen in Iraq. Here's my take on it, on Current Events, not Flame, because this is a non-partisan analysis. It may be sheer speculation, but it is non-partisan speculation.

First, let's assume something totally unexpected doesn't happen, like Turkey invades the northern Kurds, or we attack Iran or Pakistan, or the Israelis go on the warpath. If something like that occurs, all bets are off, so let's just assume the status quo holds for the next year or so, both in the MidEast as well as the rest of the world. I'm well aware that's a big If.

First, the US is going to withdraw from Iraq, either immediately, or in some kind of phased save-face fashion, but we will withdraw. Either the Democrats will succeed in getting the votes in Congress to make it happen, or the President's own party will pressure him to do so. In any event, it will happen. At the latest, a Democratic President will just pull the plug on the operation after the elections, or a Republican President will do it to get his administration out of there. It's no longer a question of whether or not we should stay there, but whether or not we can. The armed forces are now redlined and cannot maintain this pace much longer.

President Bush, convinced the alternatives are intolerable, may want to drag it out until after the election, to pull the same gag Johnson worked on Nixon during Viet Nam. But it ain't going to happen, the next president, regardless of party, is not going to want to start his term with this albatross around his neck and both parties will prefer to let Bush take the fall for whatever happens after. My prediction: we will be out of Iraq by the time the next election goes down.

So what happens? Well, see for yourself, the stage is already set and all the players have auditioned for and thoroughly rehearsed their parts. The Sunnis and their Al-Quaeda allies are going to try and re-establish Sunni dominance in the country: the only alternative for them will be to suffer genocide. They've been working on this for years now, and they're not going to stop just because we leave. But the Sunnis are outnumbered 3 or 4 to 1 by the Shias, and the latter have the militias, which will more than make up for the Al-Quaeda organization and the remnants of the old Baathist infrastructure. Besides, they will have plenty of support from Iran. It will be a full scale civil war between Sunni and Shia. This war has already started, only the US presence has kept it from spiraling into a full scale conflict.

I suspect this war will go for the Shia, but I cannot see the Sunni Arab world standing by and letting a Shia-led and Iran-sponsored regime take over Iraq's oil and strategic position. From their point of view, it would be worse than having the Americans there. They will respond, probably from Saudi Arabia, but with help from Syria and probably Jordan, Turkey and the Gulf States as well. The whole MidEast could erupt into war. Iran is the major power in the region, and the only one with a big enough army and economy to mount an invasion into Iraqi territory (the Turks will be content with establishing a buffer in Kurdistan, but they might get drawn into it), but I doubt it will be a big conventional war. It will remain a civil conflict with the same players we have there now (minus the US), but there will be all kinds of money, weapons and "volunteers" pouring in from the entire MidEast. Iran may wind up replacing the USA as occupiers, but not much will change otherwise, they can't win there either, for the same reasons we can't.

In any event, things may not turn out as bad for the US as we have feared. Al-Quaeda and the Islamist movement will be bogged down in an internecine struggle, and that is always more destructive and passionate than fighting infidels, so the terrorist threat against the west will diminish or vanish altogether, at least for the time being. There may be severe economic dislocations in Japan, Europe and the US because of a severe spike in oil prices (Iran, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia will be busy destroying each other's oil fields) but at least it won't go nuclear (Iran's not ready and Pakistan is going to try and stay out of it). The US Navy will be able to ensure that enough oil leaves the Gulf to keep our economy, and the Gulf States' war machines, running. Regardless of how it works out in detail, the upshot will be that the Jihadists will be mostly busy fighting each other. This crisis will not be resolved, it will have to be managed.

Still, a lot of innocent people might get hurt, and a lot of international problems may arise, but I predict this war will not last long, or may not even get past the initial stages. Besides, these countries simply do not have the industrial base to maintain a conventional struggle going indefinitely. It will quickly bog down into a war of attrition like the Iran/Iraq conflict did. The leaders of the MidEast are not fools, and they will quickly realize that only a political solution will be able to prevent the collapse of all Islamic ambitions for the rest of the century. They will deal, if for no other reason than to prevent the US from benefitting too much from their confusion. Eventually, Iraq will be occupied again, probably by a joint Arab/Iranian force, and the country may even be partitioned amongst the major players and ethnic constituencies. It will be just like now, the only difference is we won't be there. And I doubt a Sunni Al-Quaeda will survive.

No, I'm not gleefully looking forward to any of this, it will be a great tragedy for the region, and it will be wonderful if it didn't have to happen, but I don't see much of a way out now. I really think this is how things will play out. After the dust settles, the world will be different, perhaps worse than it is now, but at least different, and we will have the time to put together a policy where we can regain influence in the region. They are going to need us to rebuild so they will have little choice but to bargain.

But I do think this conflict will resolve itself, just like Viet Nam did, without our help. And the world will not come to an end.