I like your analysis and agree with most of it except that you don’t really suggest what our next step should be. May I suggest one.
We should build the biggest damn base the world has ever seen in the south of Iraq where we can control a large port. Then we should patrol the border between Iraq and Iran to keep every body out and let the Sunni and Shia divide up what remains of the place with the Kurds keeping both of them ‘honest’ or as close to that as the mid east will allow.
It will be a lot more than people getting ‘hurt’ as you said – al lot will get killed but it seems that it has to happen some time anyway.
I would expect the Shia to enforce Sharia law in the territory that they control and the Sunni to become more secular as they were before we ‘librated’ Iraq.
With the US out of the civil war we will be able to cause all sorts of mischief to keep all three sides off balance and fighting each other and at the same time protect our own interests in the area.
The idea that we could bring democracy to these people is lunacy and always has been
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