This is going to be the next battleground in the culture wars. War is a finite resource, in spite of the theories of Thomas Gold and the Russians, there is only so much in the world. The real question is how much, and of what's left, how much is accessible, and of what's accessible, how much is economically viable. As technology for recovery improves, it is clear that previously inaccessible reserves will become profitable, and as prices rise, the value of previously unprofitable deposits will suddenly become realized. But sooner or later, it will run out. There will either be not be enough, or it will be spread to thin, or it will be too expensive to pump out.

Back in the seventies, an article by Scientific American pointed out that the percentage of dry exploratory holes, wells with no or or not enough economically recoverable or accessible petroleum, had been about constant since serious oil exploration began in Pennsylvania before the turn of the century. That sounds like good news, but as the article pointed out, the technology for exploration and recovery was improving by leaps and bounds throughout that period. As you might expect, we found all the easy, cheap crude first, and we've had to worker harder and harder just to break even. Needless to say, it costs a lot more too.

This is exactly how you would expect a finite resource to behave over time. The question is really not how much oil is left, but how can we expect it to be developed. There will always be oil, some of it perhaps just out of sight. But the question is how can the industry meet an ever-increasing demand. Oil production may have already peaked relative to demand, or it may last for centuries; only time will tell. But like so many issues today, by the time we find out for sure it will be too late to do anything about it.

In the meantime, the debate will be carried out on ideological grounds.
Those who are prospering in the current oil market environment will bitterly resist any change to the way things are currently done. Those without a direct economic interest will tend to exhibit a more varied, and in my opinion, realistic view.