You only have control of your own actions and thoughts.
It is very dangerous to plan your responses on what you expect your opponent to do. And it is absolute madness to expect them to plan their actions on what you think they expect you to do. That is twice removed from reality.
However, there always comes a time when the unexpected can elicit a momentary paralysis in your rival. When the situation is desparate, if you are ready to exploit that paralysis, you can sometimes force a favorable conclusion.
Spock and Kirk discuss this at length in "The Corbomite Maneuver", where they meditate on the relative lessons of chess--and poker.