The trainwreck is cost.
It's eating away at American businesses and driving millions of Americans into bankruptcy. No amount of statistical manipulation you do changes the facts the current system is unsustainable. Cost has to be controlled. A public option will force the private insurance companies to be more cost-competitive.
The end result over the long run: Private insurance will offer high quality coverage for the wealthy, and public insurance will be there for the rest. As it should be.