<

----------------------------------------------------------
CCNet SPECIAL -- VIKING AT 25:
REPORT ON THE SYMPOSIUM ON MARS EXPLORATION HELD IN WASHINGTON ON 19 JULY, 2001 (Part 2)
--------------------------------------------
By E.P. Grondine

WHAT HAPPENS IF LIFE IS FOUND?
Both Garvin and Naderi left the time of the return of any samples of life from Mars open. The reason for this is that no one knows when the return of living samples form Mars will be possible, if they exist.

The reason for this vagueness is that engineering a "safe" sample return capsule, that is one capable of containing any living organism and preventing it from escaping into the Earth's biosphere, is going to be a formidable engineering challenge. The design will not only have to satisfy NASA's own planetary safety officer, but also officials from the National Institute of Health and the Center for Disease Control.

The back contamination problem that any Martian life may present to life on Earth was generally either avoided or minimized by symposium participants. Malin thought it would only be a problem for those who had watched too many episodes of the X-Files on television. Dr. Firouz Naderi, NASA's Mars Program Manager, warned that it would be a real problem. Space journalist Leonard David mentioned it, but prefaced his mentions by repeating several times the very political "I don't know, I just don't know...".

Fortunately or unfortunately, I don't have to be political, but I do have to be clear. There is no planetary protection official anywhere on this Earth who would want his name remember in the way Pandora's is, alongside of her Box's.

THE REALITY OF MANNED MARS MISSIONS
During that part of the symposium which covered the times of Viking, pictures of the scientists from those times were projected on the walls to either side of the stage: how well dressed those young engineers were, how smiling, how intensely focused. Then had come the Vietnam War, the reductions in the NASA budgets, and most of the space engineers, now with wives and families, had cut off their hair, and become space warriors working on military contracts. Viking veteran Dan Goldin is very typical in this regard: he started off his working career engineering manned flight to Mars with the Saturn launcher; he had moved on to Viking life science experiments; and finally he had ended up working in the most secret of the defense reconnaissance satellite programs.

As it appears from both his public statements and some of the engineering studies completed, when he had become NASA administrator, Goldin had started to work once again on the problem of sending man to Mars. The small studies seem to have become focused around the possibility of converting the Shuttle over to a Shuttle C type of heavy lifter when the new RLV was supposed to have come on line, which was anticipated to have been about the year 2005. This would have made manned Mars flight possible around 2010, a date which Goldin has frequently mentioned. Unfortunately, problems were encountered in building the composite fuel tank for the RLV, and that program is now on indefinite hold, along with the plans for an early manned Mars flight.

At a more realistic level, NASA Associate Administrator for the Office of Spaceflight presented a list of the real problems involved in manned flight to Mars. Rothenberg thought that it would be unlikely that manned Mars flight would be considered or receive consideration or political backing until sometime around 2010, when the Shuttle was replaced as a launch vehicle. Rothenberg mentioned that the manned space flight team had been working with the robotic team to ensure that robotic exploration would be undertaken in such a way as to make manned Mars flights possible, which goes a long way towards explaining why the Mars Sample Return had been scheduled for the year 2010, that is it had been scheduled at that date before the losses of the Mars Climate Orbiter and Mars Polar Lander had ruined that schedule, and the X-33 fuel tank failure had halted work on the RLV. Rothenberg was working with Garvin, and communication systems for future unmanned probes were being designed with their subsequent use for manned space flight in mind.

Unlike Goldin, who later in the day still spoke of a time frame of just past 2010, Rothenberg estimated the time frame for manned fight to Mars was no sooner than 2025. He estimated that by that time space research and manufacturing facilities would be in full use, and that space tourism would be thriving. More importantly to Conference participants, Rothenberg thought that man tended space telescopes with apertures of from 300 to 500 meters would be constructed at the Earth-Sun libation point of L-2; but he only mentioned these in regard to the search for terrestrial planets outside of our solar system. I think that Conference participants should make it a point to see that any possible telescopes of this class are considered with the detection of small threatening NEOs kept firmly in mind.

Rothenberg initially spoke about the problem of manned Mars flight in terms of the duration of manned flights. 100 day flights were sufficient for manned exploration of the Moon, which included the use of a station in lunar orbit, with 5 days travel each way, and about 90 days on the Moon's surface.

(See http://www.geocities.com/epgrondine/for one architecture for such a lunar program.)

500 to 1,000 day duration spaceflights would sufficient for manned visits to an asteroid; but 1,000 days was felt to be the minimum sufficient for manned flight to Mars. Rothenberg did not mention the possible use of asteroid KY-26 in manned flights to Mars.

Rothenberg saw that providing radiation shielding would present a severe problem. Mechanical techniques seemed out of the question; shielding with a spacecraft's hydrogen fuel appeared possible. Zero gravity also presented another severe problem. Rothenberg brought up the problems which would be presented during such a long flight in the delivery of medical and dental services to the crew.

A way of getting around the supply constraints, the radiation constraints, and the zero gravity restraints would be to reduce the travel time to Mars to 30 days, this by having a 1 g acceleration on the outbound course followed by a 1 g deceleration for Mars insertion. Rothenberg pointed out again that even for a Keplerian orbit fuel requirements for a conventional rocket engine were between 400 to 500 metric tons, and he felt that either nuclear propulsion or the production of fuel on Mars would have to be considered for quick trips to be possible. It should be noted here that the earlier designs for the Mars Sample Return mission had been intended to test exactly such fuel production technologies. Rothenberg made no examination of the use of solar thermal engines for this flight, engines which are completely clean and re-usable, while at the same time delivering the same specific impulse as nuclear engines.

Rothenberg spoke repeatedly about the need for success with the International Space Station as the only way of securing the public's support for further exploration. He was of the opinion that any manned space effort beyond low Earth orbit would have to be international in scope. He spoke at length about the severe problem that NASA was already facing in securing the services of young people with scientific training and engineering skills.

Rothenberg made no mention of the problem of back contamination, and the reason for this omission is simply that this would have been addressed by the Mars Sample Return mission(s).

TERRAFORMING MARS IS NOT POSSIBLE...
During the question period at the end of the day, questions were asked about the feasibility of terraforming Mars. The first point that was made was that terraforming Mars would require incredible masses to be sent there.

The second point was even more negative, as even if anyone succeeded in terraforming Mars, as Mars had no magnetic field it was entirely subject to very intense radiation, radiation which would quickly undo any terraforming effects which had been achieved. Since no one has any way of giving Mars a magnetic field, the question terraforming is now moot, and will remain that way.

...EXCEPT IN SCIENCE FICTION
The big news of the day was author Larry Bergen's information that NBC was developing a television series about manned flights to Mars. This series is to be based on the small piece of fiction with which Bergen closed a recent non-fiction book of his on unmanned missions to Mars.

It has been known for some time that the Fox television network (Rupert Murdock) had entered into a deal with "Titanic" director James Cameron for the broadcast of a science fiction series based on the books "Red Mars", "Green Mars", and "Blue Mars" by Kim Stanley Robinson. This television series is being developed by Cameron at the same he is working on an IMAX film on the same theme.

It appears that more than a few folks at NBC subsequently "thought" it would be nice if they had a Mars series of their own, and purchased the television rights to Bergen's work to give their writers something to work with. Incredibly enough, since Bergen was not writing it he knew little about the NBC series, except that it would resemble a combination of "The Right Stuff" by Tom Wolfe and "The West Wing" NBC's fictional television series about the White House.

What is even more incredible is that for the same money one could actually have a television show which showed Mars, instead of a series which imagined it. Television episodes usually cost about $2 million apiece to film, and with 13 shows required for a season, that comes to at least $26 million dollars. I think that the Russian firms would be delighted to sell a Molniya, landing stage, a 4 wheel rover, and antenna usage for a similar amount. Perhaps the CBS or ABC television networks ought to look into it.

Ah well then, dream shows always draw better than real shows, don't they?

DANIEL GOLDIN'S PRESENTATION
NASA Administrator Dan Goldin arrived late for his presentation, emerging clearly fatigued from what must have been a brutal meeting with representatives of President George Bush JR’s Office of Management and Budget. In recent years, under several Presidents, including Bush Snr and Clinton, the Office of Management and Budget has come to play an increasing role in the management of NASA. I think this may be due to the fact that no President wishes to be seen as anti-space; instead, they prefer to let OMB do the dirty work of reducing NASA's budget, doing the work well away from them, and well concealed from public reaction. Due to his fatigue, Goldin gave his presentation in a very mechanical manner, and followed this by reading a letter from the President, a letter which it appears that Bush JR did not write himself, but simply signed when it was presented to him. I suppose some space enthusiasts will take heart at that fact that at least he did that.

AT THE END OF THE DAY
In closing this review of the day's events, one of my goals for the symposium was to meet William Allen, President of the National Geographic Society, at the reception held after the symposium. This is a goal which I did not succeed in fulfilling.

From their magazine we can see that the members of the National Geographic Society are quite interested in the mysterious Etruscans, the mysterious Minoans, the mysterious Ponapeians, and the mysterious Olmecs; and I am quite sure that some day some these members are going to be absolutely stunned to learn the role that the impacts of asteroids and comets played in making these peoples so "mysterious". Support of people like them is going to be necessary if we are ever to get sufficient funding from the government to deal with this hazard in a thorough way.

Oh well -- you loose some, you win some. Let's all hope that the losses do not include the population of a continent, as they have in the past.

Best wishes -
Ed

*** PLEASE NOTE ***

Information circulated on the Cambridge-Conference
Network is for scholarly use only.
The attached text may not be reproduced
or transmitted without prior permission
of the copyright holder.

Dan

--------------------------------------------------------------------
THE CAMBRIDGE-CONFERENCE NETWORK (CCNet)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The CCNet is a scholarly electronic network. To subscribe/unsubscribe, please contact the moderator Benny J Peiser.

Information circulated on this network is for scholarly and educational use only. The attached information may not be copied or reproduced for any other purposes without prior permission of the copyright holders. The fully indexed archive of the CCNet, from February 1997 on, can be found at the Cambridge Conference Network.

DISCLAIMER:
The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed in the articles and texts and in other CCNet contributions do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the moderator of this network.