re: My gut...The incumbant always has the advantage.
Perhaps it's a partisan thing. We look at the same situation and come to opposite conclusions. Strictly from my point of view:
Not only must Kerry convince people that Bush has done a poor job
Kerry's ace in the hole is named George W. Bush. You might have noticed one of the striking features of this election: How many people have already made up their minds about Bush, and how strongly those opposed to him feel about the need to remove him from office. That's what I keep saying about the election being a referendum on the incumbent. Unless somebody's been in a coma for four years, there's been more than enough time to reach a verdict. Incumbency's a two-edged sword: A popular President who's spent four years leading and developing broad support has an advantage, while at the same time a President who's spent four years dividing the country and pissing off broad segments of the electorate is at a disadvantage. Incumbency is a powerful force, but it's up to the incumbent to make it an advantage or a disadvantage.
He must first convice people to throw Bush out while at the same time convincing them that he's not going to upset the apple cart on critical issues like the war on terror, appointments to the courts, etc...
I'd say that of that list, only the war on terror doesn't have strong partisan overtones. The appointment of judges is extremely partisan, and a lot of us think that it's Bush who's been trying to upset the apple cart. I think the Bush tax cut apple cart needs overturning, Bush's environmental apple cart needs overturning...this election's about upsetting apple carts for the opposition.
Change is definitely a good thing, and one of the profound strengths of the American system is that change is built into it. I think we need change now, you think we don't, but sooner or later we're guaranteed to see change.