Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to re: OK

Defining defeat and victory

The islamic fascists can not conquer America through direct military action. The worst they can do is blow away a few American/European cities with suitcase nukes. However that very scenario defines our "defeat". I refer the reader to Wretchard's 3 conjectures (scroll halfway down):

http://www.belmontclub.blogspot.com/2003_09_01_belmontclub_archive.html#106401071003484059

"Victory" occurs when we get the Middle East on the road towards secular democracy and completely discredited islamic fascism as a means towards political power. Establishing democracy in Iraq is the second step of a very long journey (crushing the Taliban was the first step). The hard part comes when Saudi Arabia destabilizes (I'd give that 5 years or less) and/or the Iranians nuke Tel Aviv (I'd give that 2-3 years). A strong US presence in 3 or 4 miitary bases situation in the Iraqi desert along with a stable Iraqi democracy will better position us for the next step (It's going to be a wild ride).

Gary

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