Looking only at the last 35 years is cherry-picking the data. Hurricane frequency varies over the decades. If you're up to some actual data analysis, you can find a list of all Atlantic hurricances since 1851.
Here's a link to an article that examined hurricane frequency from 1886-1996). Here's the abstract: The annual record of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin for the period 1886–1996 is examined from the perspective of time series analysis. Singular spectrum analysis combined with the maximum entropy method is used on the time series of annual hurricane occurrences over the entire basin to extract the dominant modes of oscillation. The annual frequency of hurricanes is modulated on the biennial, semidecadal, and neardecadal timescales. The biennial and semidecadal oscillations correspond to two well-known physical forcings in the local and global climate. These include a shift in tropical stratospheric winds between an east and west phase quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and a shift in equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures between a warm and cold phase El Nin˜o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) . These climate signals have previously been implicated in modulating interannual hurricane activity in the North Atlantic and elsewhere. The near-decadal oscillation is a new finding. Separate analyses on tropical-only (TO) and baroclinically enhanced (BE) hurricane frequencies show that the two components are largely complementary with respect to their frequency spectra. The spectrum of TO hurricanes is dominated by timescales associated with ENSO and the QBO, while the near-decadal timescale dominates the spectrum of BE hurricanes. Speculations as to the cause of the near-decadal oscillation of BE hurricanes center on changes in Atlantic SSTs possibly through changes in evaporation rates. Specifically, crosscorrelation analysis points to solar activity as a possible explanation. Here's a very recent article from several atmospheric scientists who also look at a longer timeframe that the last 35 years.Hurricanes and Global Warming (emphasis added)
Since 1995 there has been an increase in the number of storms and in particular the number of major hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5) in the Atlantic. But the changes of the past decade in these metrics are not so large as to clearly indicate that anything is going on other than the multi-decadal variability that has been well documented since at least 1900 (Gray et al. 1997; Landsea et al. 1999; Goldenberg et al. 2001). Consequently, in the absence of large or unprecedented trends, any effect of greenhouse gases on the frequency of storms or major hurricanes is necessarily very difficult to detect in the context of this documented variability. Perspectives on hurricanes are no doubt shaped by recent history, with relatively few major hurricanes observed in the 1970s, 80s and early 90s, compared with considerable activity during the 1940s, 50s and early 60s. The period from 1944 to 1950 was particularly active for Florida. During that period eleven hurricanes hit the state, at least one per year, resulting in the equivalent of billions of dollars in damage in each of those years (Pielke and Landsea 1998).
Globally there has been no increase in tropical cyclone frequency over at least the past several decades (Lander and Guard 1998; Elsner and Kocher 2000). In addition to a lack of theory for future changes in storm frequencies, the few global modeling results are contradictory (Henderson-Sellers et al 1998; IPCC 2001). Because historical and observational data on hurricanes and tropical cyclones are relatively robust, it is clear that storm frequency has not tracked recent tropical climate trends. Research on possible future changes in hurricane frequency due to global warming is ambiguous, with most studies suggesting that future changes will be regionally-dependent, and showing a lack of consistency in projecting an increase or decrease in the total global number of storms (Henderson-Sellers et al. 1998, Royer et al. 1998; Sugi et al. 2002). These studies give such contradictory results as to suggest that the state of understanding of tropical cyclogenesis provides too poor a foundation to base any projections about the future. While there is always some degree of uncertainty about the future and model-based results are often fickle, the state of current understanding is such that we should expect hurricanes frequencies in the future to have a great deal of year-to-year and decade-todecade variation as has been observed over the past decades and longer.
The issue of trends in tropical cyclone intensity is more complicated, simply because there are many possible metrics of intensity (e.g., maximum potential intensity, average intensity, average storm lifetime, maximum storm lifetime, average wind speed, maximum sustained wind speed, maximum wind gust, Accumulated Cyclone Energy, power dissipation and so on), and not all such metrics have been closely studied from the standpoint of historical trends, due to data limitations among other reasons. Statistical analysis of historical tropical cyclone intensity shows a robust relationship to the thermodynamic potential intensity (Emanuel, 2000), suggesting that increasing potential intensity should lead to an increase in the actual intensity of storms. The increasing potential intensity associated with global warming as predicted by global climate models (Emanuel, 1987) is consistent with the increase in modeled storm intensities in a warmer climate, as might be expected (Knutson and Tuleya 2004). But while observations of tropical and subtropical sea surface temperature have shown an overall increase of about 0.2o C over the past ~50 years, there is only weak evidence of a systematic increase in potential intensity (Bister and Emanuel, 2002; Free et al., 2004).
Just so you don't immediately dismiss these authors as a bunch of cranks, here's their names: (note: I stripped out their email addresses but they're available in the provided link)
Roger Pielke, Jr., Director
Center for Science and Technology Policy Research
1333 Grandview Ave. UCB 488
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309-0488
Christopher Landsea, Research Meteorologist
NOAA AOML/Hurricane Research Division
4301 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, Florida 33149
Max Mayfield, Director
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Jim Laver, Director
Climate Prediction Center
NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Richard Pasch, Hurricane Specialist
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 S.W. 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149
Current Events » in reply to Join the club then
Try looking at a longer timeframe
The whole thread (24 posts)
- Things are getting interesting here.
- The best thing would be if it hit the New Orleans area
- Its the price of global warming
