First off, I still doubt that the democrats will win the senate. In the house, the districting factor will keep this from being an avalanche, but there is still a good chance that the democrats will carry a small majority.

I expect that Bush will either pull out or begin to pull out of Iraq within 18 months. The influence of the neocons will be blamed within the republican party for the loss or at least reduction of republican dominance in the congress. The Republican party power structure will begin to assert itself and attempt to reign in the white house. Ironically, I think you will see the republican party as 'party' macchine become stronger as the white house becomes weaker.

The party will look to its own interests. They will do something of a 'scortched earth' political withdraw. The mess in Iraq will be blamed on the democrats (who will be even more vocal and empowered in their criticism of Iraq and agitation for withdraw), and upon the 'incompetent' Iraqi people.

The point of getting out of Iraq while a republican is the titular head of the US government should be obvious. They get to assign the scapegoats and shape the rhetoric, they deprive the 'enemy' party of forging a solution, and they get to shape the terms of the witdraw.

Iraq will remain a mess until withdraw. The current Iraqi regime is in bed with the militant clerics and with Iran and Syria. Its not that they're dupes, its that they know that Syria and Iran are going to be the people who are left with the real power when america pulls out.

Expect that the south of Iraq will become a de-facto client state of Iran. Expect that the Sunnis will try to get in bed with Syria and Lebanon and that the Sunnis and the Shia will fight a 'proxy' war for the powers in the mideast. Expect that Iraq will cease to exist as a country proper and will turn into something like the the former Yugoslavia. Expect that it will become the central breeding ground for terrorism and muslim extreemism. Just as the Israeli occupation of the 'palestinian' territories and the Russian occupation of Afghanistan served as the primary catalyst in the 70's and 80's for the rise of global islamic terrorism, so goes Iraq.

The Kurds may be the only winners- as the disentegration of the Iraqi state has been their primary goal for decades. Turkey will absolutely resist, by whatever means necessary, the rise of a Kurd power in the region. Expect Bad Things to happen there- However, the Kurds are smart (note that they played the CIA and Office of Special Plans, to help get this war started), and we may see a Sufi Kurdish Renaiassance in that region. I hope so- they deserve a chance to prosper and be free as a people. A secular Sufi-influenced Kurdish state in the region could become perhaps the only example of a modern successful 'first world type' state in the region.

Iran will be the biggest winner, though. By bleeding our military capactiy dry in Iraq, we have already determined that we will not be able to successfully confront either Iran nor North Korea and thwart their nuclear ambitions. We have nothing in the cupboard to back up military threat. Further, we have exhausted the will of the american people for prolonged military conflict.

Iran is in the grips of the worst leadership it has had since the Ayatollah. However, through no credit of their own, they have just scored the greatest geopolitical victory that modern Iran has ever seen- the elimination of the regional check on their power (pre-war Iraq), a potential massive expansion of wealth, and a hand in the defeat of the largest economic and military power on the planet. To the Iranian people, this will be seen as an affirmation of their political powers, and also as validation of their belligerant strategy WRT the US and Israel.

Israel is a huge looser. China is emboldened, and the message that any third world idiot can stand against the US and win will have severe effect on the capability of the US to wield power.

Bush has decimated our political power in the destruction of our alliances, and his 'ace' in the hole of geopolitical power: military might, is now shown to actually be a duece.

The best hope for america after this is to take the long view, and carefully reposition ourselves with our traditional allies and also re-invigorate both NATO and americas role within NATO. But its going to be a long time before the US has the world authority it had, while the shifting geopolitcal currents are bringing new superpowers to the world in China and India.

Anyway, those are my thoughts for now.