A fairly cogent analysis.
I'm not sure I agree with all of it, but in its broad outline it rings true.
I've always felt that the great chaos that is predicted for the MidEast after our withdrawal will never materialize, and that in the long run, any confusion there will eventually work out in our favor. After some initial breast-beating about havine "defeated" the Americans, the Muslim states in the region will go back to what they do best, skirmishing with each other.