Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to You'll have to be more specific about the "cumulative effect" you refer to

re: You'll have to be more specific about the "cumulative effect" you refer to
ER — (archived)

Temperature varies enormously from place to place, over the course of a day and over the seasons. And even over the years. The signal is noisy, and it is difficult to tell if the average temperature is rising since its effect is much smaller than the normal variation. This is why there is so much controversy about global warming, it's hard to measure. But if that average temperature goes up several degrees, it is very difficult to predict how the global heat engine will react and adjust to it.

What makes global warming such a scary thought is that the slight adjustments the atmosphere/ocean system will make to this heating will result in changes in rainfall patterns, ice and cloud cover, ocean currents, and patterns of vegetation. No one knows exactly what will happen, or when, or how much, and it may be difficult to spot because these factors probably change for natural reasons (although probably only gradually). But many scientists think the system may change substantially, not catastrophically, but enough to alter precipitation and maybe severely affect agriculture or other human activities. I happen to agree with them.

For example, it may stop raining in the midwest and the Ukraine and the Sahara may suddenly become the breadbasket of the world. And worldwide warming may, paradoxically, lead to local cooling if ocean currents like the Gulf Stream shift position. We know this has happened over history, what we don't know is how fast can it happen if we start messing around with the atmosphere.

I'm not a climatologist, but I do know most climatologists believe they have found hard evidence this is happening, and that it is accelerating. And I happen to believe them. I know I can't prove it without a doubt, no one can, but I have heard enough to convince me that the burden of proof no longer lies with AGW proponents, but with the deniers.

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