Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to Having just one data point on such an important subject is so frustrating

ability to fly as an analogy

Powered flight (as opposed to gliding) has evolved three times in earth history: insects, birds, and bats. It evolved in insects hundreds of millions of years before birds, and then tens of millions of years passed before bats evolved flight. A hypothetical scientist living 200 million years ago and studying flying insects would make the same conclusion about flight as Lineweaver does about advanced civilizations.

My guess is Lineweaver's wrong: intelligence requires diversification, not a general tendency in one direction. Given enough time, one characteristic of diversity that gets explored convergently is by becoming more intelligent.

Also worth noting that Mayr wrote before people knew about dolphins' and crows' ability to make and use tools.

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