I may have used the term incorrectly. I was under the impression a "delphic" test is one where several separate authorities are polled and their consensus opinion is used to guide policy. I always wondered what that had to do with the Oracle at Delphi.
Apart from that, this procedure seems pretty bulletproof to me; unless the Associated Press is either lying through their teeth and trying to fool everybody by rigging the test, or the entire statistical community is incapable of analyzing the data correctly. Either one is extremely unlikely.
When dealing with subtle statistical trends of this type, you always run the risk that an unlikely but not impossible random fluke of the data can give you the wrong result. You have to always temper predictions with caution.
It cannot be completely ruled completely out that perhaps there is no global warming, but the panicky reaction to this type of analysis by its critics reveals us more about their motives than it does about the research method.
Space/Science » in reply to Blind testing seems pretty clear to me
Re: Blind testing seems pretty clear to me
The whole thread (28 posts)
- A delphic approach to global cooling stats?
- Yeppers...they are oil and water they are...
- Re: Re: Re: We've been over this. At least three or four times.
- Re: Re: We've been over this. At least three or four times.
- You didn't read my post?
- Re: We've been over this. At least three or four times.
- Oh, I see.
- Re: Re: Re: Why do you think the AP went to this amount of work, and wrote the article?
- Re: Re: Why do you think the AP went to this amount of work, and wrote the article?
- Re: Why do you think the AP went to this amount of work, and wrote the article?
- The question here is whether there's a cooling trend.
- Blind testing seems pretty clear to me
- Re: I'd love to show you where you said otherwise...
- I'd love to show you where you said otherwise...
- Re: Wow, they're getting a lot of mileage out of this.
- Where's Gbaike when we need him?