Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to Global warming and blind trust in computer models

Any computer model is only as good...
Larry J — (archived)

as the fundamental assumptions being made and the understanding of the process being modeled. Fundamental assumptions is a key component. For example: for years, I've heard of Navy wargaming models that have the assumption that it's impossible to sink an aircraft carrier. That amusing assumption - practically a matter of dogma to the Navy - makes the outcome of the model rather questionable, IMO.

There was news earlier this week about a big wargame simulation that the Blue forces won with decisive results. However, the Marine general playing the part of the Red force commander also claimed that he was artifically constrained by the computer model being used. For example, he pulled some rather brilliant moves like using motorcycle messangers to relay commands - wiping out the Blue forces high-tech ELINT capabilities.

As someone who programs software for a living, I know firsthand how computer models are constructed and their limitations. They're a tool - nothing more - and no model can ever trump real world data.

As for climate change, that's a certainty. The Earth's climate has been changing constantly since the planet's formation. Why anyone would expect it to stop changing now is beyond me.

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