It certainly seems as though there will be a large scale operation in Fallujah. But I do not see an apocolyptic end for the citizens there, or their city. The Marines are professional and skilled. The amount of time that has elapsed between the lynching and the operation (not yet started as of this writing) indicates that there is extensive planning involved.

"One assumes the city is already under martial law."

This is not true. It has not been true since the "End of Major Combat" a year ago. And it is the source of the problem. This particular province was occupied by a brigade of the 82d Airborne. They did not send patrols into downtown Fallujah. The Marines showed up a couple weeks ago. They sent patrols, and had a couple large shootouts.

Then the four contractors were lynched, certainly with the complicity and tacit approval of community leaders.

The problem is that the citizens of Fallujah and the community leaders continue to carry on as though they are under Saddam's benevolent (to them) rule. They seem to be operating under the assumption that the Sunnis will again reign supreme in Iraq after the June 30 handover. The insurgency continues there unabated.

The citizens of Fallujah, high and low, will be made to understand that Iraq is under new management.

This will not be accomplished by razing Fallujah. Though I suspect there will be significant damage to the sections of town where the insurgents stand and fight. In those areas especially, civilians will be evacuated.

The Marines, working with Iraqi forces, will be conducting a city wide cordon and search operation. Each house will be searched, and the residents questioned, both on the contractor incident and on other matters of interest.

Shall we use armored bulldozers and flatten the place? This has been tried recently in the Palestinian territories. No, the Israelis haven't tried to flatten the entire cities. It's within their capability, but they haven't. Armored bulldozers were used in the immediate area around Arafat's headquarters, to reduce cover. And probably in several other operations, especially the Jenin operation in (April?) 2002.

I suspect that the US may have to use armored bulldozers in the upcoming Fallujah operation. There is a rule to street fighting, learned by US forces in WWII in places like Cologne and Manila: "Stay out of the streets!" Streets are deathtraps in urban warfare. Therefore, it is necessary to go house to house. Through the walls.

If intense resistance is met, that will be the case. I suspect, however, that there are not a large number of insurgents willing to put up a fight against the Marines and especially the Marine Scout/Snipers. Most will go quietly in cheap plastic cuffs. I would be greatly surprised if more than 50 blocks of Fallujah were flattened by fighting. It will likely be about 20.

There will be no wholesale slaughter of civilians. Civilians in high-risk areas will be evacuated, and provided with rudimentary food and shelter. They will be allowed to return after.

This operation will not be brainless. It will not take place simply to satisfy viceroy Bremer's alpha-male need dominance.

Because the 82nd avoided Falluja proper, the US currenly lacks intelligence and insider knowledge of who's who and what's what in Falluja.

The concept of justice that I was taught apprehends suspects, tries them, and then punishes those convicted of wrongdoing.

This is absolutely correct. However, one cannot begin proper inquiries without knowing something of the situation in Falluja. This is why extensive field interrogations will be required.

More than that, the very nature of Falluja's social structure must be altered. Is police work possible without informants? As of now, the tribal leaders remain large and in charge, uncontested by the US military. There may well be many decent citizens, perhaps a majority, who are repelled by such violence and want nothing more than to get on with thier lives.

But who can doubt than an informer will be strung up from the very same bridge come nightfall? For the common man of Falluja, omerta is not the honorable choice in the face of the infidel, it is the only choice. If that means locking up "community leaders", then that is what will happen.

There is yet another reason massive, but measured, military operation in Falluja: Foriegn terrorist activity. Close observers will remember that on 14 February, there was a large raid on Iraqi police stations in Fallujah. Documents indicating that non-Iraqis were in the raid were recovered from bodies afterword. In addition, some survivors reported the attackers did not speak Arabic. The objective of the raid was to free prisoners from the jail.

The US cannot turn over Fallujah in its present state to the new Iraqi government on June 30. If Fallujah is not cleaned up by the US, the Iraqis will have to clean it up. And then I would fear for the sort of "example" Fallujah might be. Iraqi forces do not and will not for some time have the training, patience, doctrine, discipline and equipment necessary for such and operation.

Recommended further reading here and here.