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Bad for Bush no matter how you slice
dtb — (archived)

A sober analysis of the poll by a conservative at National Review. Somewhat skeptical of CBS but makes the following correct observation:

"Even a back-of-the-envelope calculation that distributes the survey population equally among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents would improve the president’s approval rating by three points, to 37%."

I'll also note that some Right blogs are saying the data must be faked because Independents show attitudes very much more like Dems than like the GOP, but that can't be right because Independents should be 50/50 likely to side with either party.

That actually was often true before 2001: as a first guess, putting Independents halfway between Dems and the GOP was usually about right. Not always; in 1994, then the GOP took control of Congress, Independents leaned towards teh GOP.

Since 2001, however, Independents have looked increasingly like Democrats on most issues. It's to the point where Independents are about 3 times as likely to agree with Democrats than Republicans on most (but not all) questions. That's a result you see in ALL polls -- media, partisan, academic.

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