Technically very sound...and completely out of touch with reality
Of course the violence, the sectarian attacks, the IED attacks have temporarily decreased. The warring Shia factions, the Sunni insurgents, and the Al Queda terrorists are smart enough to take a break, and avoid the "surging" US soldiers for now, hiding their weapons, and simply bidding their time until the Americans leave. And when that happens, as it surely will within a few short years, all holy hell will break loose in Iraq, and the resulting bloodbath will be horrific. The Iraqi gov't will be way, way too weak to stop it.