The scoring system is very simple
The issue here isn't clairvoyance, it's judgment and moral sense. Were you in favor of invading Iraq, or against it? The scoring system is binary, and I have to call it obfuscation to focus on the minutia of specific events.
I judged it wrong on multiple levels to invade Iraq. I was right. The score is 1-0.
And had things turned out Rosie Scenario's way, I still would have thought it a stupid move, and morally reprehensible, to invade a country only tangentially a threat to our security. Succeeding at something stupid doesn't make it retroactively smart.
See how simple it is without the obfuscation?