Wheras I want to discuss reality.

Sure you do.

No, you just want to play tag with Tom about who was right or wrong about how Iraq would turn out.

Reality, as far as the US national security, is far divorced from whether or not Sadr is a problem or the Shiite government is unstable. It is solely concerned with the daily output and the successful loading of ships in Iraqi ports.

The gas numbers are generalizations, since the event has not yet happened. the US exodus from Iraq, and the likelihood of our current oil contracts disappearing with the last of our troops, would put the US price of gas anywhere from $6.00 to $15.00 gallon. It doesn't matter how short you are of US consumption at a certain point - even a few barrels a day would impact prices in such a manner.

Regardless of the exact figure, the damage would be about the same - a full blown depression.

The economic outlook is not good. I have sources in the largest advertising agencies and all advertising money is literally drying up. Small businesses are closing left and right, larger ones are tightening their belts and bolting everything down to ride out the storm. Others are trying to merge or be bought out to avoid sinking. Even your local yellow pages, a great indicator of small business prosperity, will be a fraction of the size it once was - not a good sign.

The US is paying the price of becoming a management center that outsources all manufacturing offshore and hires illegals here who also send the money down to Mexico. The money has been flooding out of the nation at unprecedented rates for over twenty years now and now the managers are surprised US buyers have no bucks to spend.

The powers that be have been pretty good at "virtual" stopgaps, such as hyping the stock market in the late nineties to fix the early nineties recession, or inflated real estate values after the stock market crashed and everyone lost their shirt, pants and tie and silicon valley folks moved back into their parents garage. All these efforts didn't change the fundamental reality:

Money & industry offshore = recession & then depression at home.

Gas prices are the final straw that looks to be the factor which breaks the camel's back.

However, if the US goes into a full blown depression, these other nations increased wealth will be shortlived. The incompetent management and corporate parasites have done their best to sink the economy at their own personal profit. They understand greed, but they don't understand successful capitalism.

But go back to arguing with Tom about whose predictions were most accurate, whether the Kurds are now eating porridge or gruel, and ignore the reality of why we are really there and why it is all important that we don't just pack up and walk away.