Thank g*d you’ve showed up here, Ken. As the saying goes,”We came in peace for all mankind.”

>Ken:...<
>That's (lunar dust) one of them, sure, but even over the short term additions to the lunar atmosphere are likely to be significant, which while not likely to block any of the spectrum it may attenuate it somewhat, meaning another thing to factor in. I read somewhere that each Apollo mission effectively doubled the ambient atmosphere of the Moon. I've always cast a hairy eyeball at that one, but it is an important point, especially once industrial operations commence. A permanent base to service the telescopes brings with it all kinds of attendant problems, two of which are leakage "corrupting" the ambient lunar environment and associated telescopic observation therethrough, and consumables supplies, neither of which is to be taken lightly.<

Besides the dust, you have to look at rocket exhaust – but at least on the Moon, you have the Moon itself for a “sink”, whereas at EML the only “sink” available would be the telescopes themselves, and THEIR OPTICS. Normal electrostatic charging by sunlight and normal solar wind charging virtually ensures that both would get fouled at EML. On the Moon, we can set up an electrostatic dust control system.

>If it were up to me I'd put the scopes in the tallest walled crater (meaning relative to the surrounding terrain {whoops! Uh, selenain, lunain, landscape, yeah, landscape, that's the ticket}, not the bowl).<

The proposal is for several different detection systems, with each to be sited optimally.

>EPG, I do recognize that the initial emplacement can be uncrewed but tended. Still, with the talent and resources that we seem to be working with right now you're still talking a very ambitious program. And that was meant as a challenge, not an insult.<

NASA and the US space contractors have plenty of good engineers – hard to sort them out, but the funny thing is, if you simply make yourself available, they will find you

>Asteroids< (and I add here comets, EPG) >are something that we really should be spending "real" money on, but we're not. Just know better, by whatever means possible, is something that can be done relatively quickly, but even there there's no consensus because the shrinking pie yields no crumbs, and each special interest will fight savagely by whatever means possible to save it's few meager scraps of the space dole. This means no sharing for something else or something better. It can't even make it onto the agenda.<

Great summary, Ken, but you have to add into this mess the particularly vicious tactics some of the “Mars Enthusiasts” have used over the last several years.

>The last couple of asteroid near fly-bys were blindsiders, coming out of the Sun. This is a global issue, no question about it.<

Nice thing about man tended Moon based facilities is that the other countries on this "globe" of ours can pick up their share of the cost -

>But you know, other folks have more pressing agendas. Did you know that the water industry estimates that over the next ten years some $250.0Bn will need to be spent just in maintaining our current water system? Not upgrading, not growing, just maintaining. The core stuff we have now is mostly fifty to a hundred years old. At one point the city of Dallas couldn't account for some ridiculous percentage of water it was pumping each month. In NYC the water periodically turns orange as brick dust is knocked loose in the 100-yr old infrastructure.

>Electricity is an entirely different matter, as are the highways and bridges and rail lines. None of that crucial infrastructure is exactly in great shape, taken as a whole. <

Yeah, with 25% of power coming from nuclear plants that are ending their lifetimes, and no one able to co-ordinate the needed improvements in transmission lines - and the trucking industry stopping high speed piggy back service, and the airlines working against high speed inter city rail, and the rising price of gas leading to insufficient funding of bridge repair, and on one wanting more highways next to them, (look at the mess with the Potomac River bridges) but at the same time everyone demanding adequate roads.

>We've got foreign adventures we have to fund.<

The question is whether Sharon will be able to take down Bush Jr., or if Bush Jr can force Sharon to give up the settlements. If Bush Jr wins this battle, then most of the problems of our “foreign adventures“ are going to disappear right fast.

>The aging population needs to be taken care of with the best medical traetment available. The fat ranks of management squat heavily on the workers (ooh, that sounds so socialist), desperately trying to ensure a retirement in the manner to which they've become accustomed, and in ten years there won't be enough folks to fill all the jobs.
We are not able to focus enough on the issue, and the space community is too divided to guide everyone to it.<

The "space community" may not know what it is doing, but I do...

>Chris ~~And I would love to go to the Moon just not on false pretenses and with no chance of making it be a permanent return. The odds against a large impactor hitting the Earth in the next 100 years is so great as to make lotto look like a good bet! I wouldn't pin hopes on the same star Ed does. No congress or sane POTUS will buy the poke without looking for the pig in it.~~
>Ken ~~ One, we don't really know what the odds are. We have not identified everything out there, and we won't know until we go out and look. You know how I feel about speculation based on hypotheses (a/k/a computer models). And yes, I did take statistics in college - part of why it always gets the hairy eyeball from me.<

HERE ARE THE FACTS. The "small" impact hazard, not including Extinction Level Events, is (from http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce091702.html)

APPENDIX 1: A SHORT ANNOTATED LIST OF KNOWN AND SUSPECTED HISTORICAL IMPACTS
AS OF OCTOBER, 2003

Most, but not all, of the impact events listed here await detailed
confirmation by field geologists and field archaeologists; those impact
events which have already been confirmed by field studies are indicated by
the lack of an accompanying "?". Known impacts which resulted in no or few
deaths are indicated by "miss". More detailed information on each separate
impact, pointers to internet sites, and reports on current research may be
found in the Cambridge Conference archives maintained by Bob Kobres at:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/cccmenu.html.

CLASS 8 DEFINITION: LOCALIZED DESTRUCTION
"A collision capable of causing localized destruction."
CURRENT FREQUENCY ESTIMATE (adopted by the International Astronomical
Union): "Such events occur somewhere between once per 50 years and once per 1000
years."

CLASS 8 SUSPECTED(?) AND CONFIRMED HISTORIC IMPACT EVENTS AS OF JUNE 2002:

CA. 2697 BCE - HUANGDI IMPACT, SHAANXI, CHINA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: Analysis of found fragment not yet published
http://www.china.org.cn/english/30360.htm - Li Yanhun, 1980-2000
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2002-04-09/64766.html
http://www.greatwallct.com/meteorit.htm
?http://www.jilin.gov.cn/en/sxfm/jl.htm

17 February, 2325 BCE - CAMPO DE CIELO, ARGENTINA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: IRON
http://www.phy.mtu.edu/~jaszczak/meteorite.html
http://www.star-bits.com/campo.htm
Both Bruce Masse and Oscar Alfredo Turone have been assembling myths from
the area: http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc032601.html

For a possible Mayan record of this event, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce010702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2001:
7 September, 2325 BCE - A white headband was closed for White?
17 February, 2325 BCE - Lady White conjured up the gods at Matawil
Note that the meaning of the Mayan locative "Matawil" is still unclear, and
this report may instead relate to the Hurrian impact event (below). Note
also that the rain of molten iron subsequent to the impact of an iron at
higher speeds can result in fires occurring over an area far larger than
that first ignited by the initial impact blast.

CA. 1586 BCE - DESTRUCTION OF HITTITE FORCES UNDER T'E HANTILISH (JOSHUA
IMPACT EVENT)(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: IRON strongly suspected
There had been much discussion of this impact event prior to my own
involvement, and I hope others will forgive my bias here, but for a first
accurate dating in LM 1B context and possible identification as an iron
impactor see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc032098.html; - E.P. Grondine, 1998. For
a summation of contemporary (i.l. at 1586 BCE) text and archaeological data
see: http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc021202.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

CA. 520 BCE - DESTRUCTION OF ETRUSCAN CAPITOL CITY OF VOLSINII(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
See: http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc043098.html - E.P. Grondine, 1998
(I have a collection of Latin texts relating to this impact event sitting on
my desk. Of course, work with texts is no substitute for field work in
Tuscany.)

CA. 1 BCE - BRENHAM, KANSAS
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: STONY-IRON
For discovery of the crater, see:
http://www.bigwell.org/meteor.html
For impactor type, see:
http://wapi.isu.edu/Geo_Pgt/Mod05_Meteorites_Ast/Met_ast_pages/brenham_meteorite.htm
For Native American use, see:
On five new American Meteorites; ART. XLII, The American Journal of Science,
George F. Kunz, 1890 (This was 112 years ago, but before nuclear explosions
no one understood the size of the blast.)
For an overview of subsequent work, see:
Cosmic Debris - Meteorites in History, J.G. Burke, 1986, pp. 223-225:
For other contemporary work see:
http://www.maa.mhn.de/Comet/metlegends.html - Gary W. Kronk
http://www.meteor.co.nz/may96_2.html - Glen Akridge, 1996
Anthropologist Donald Blakeslee is also currently working through Native
American materials.
For exhaustive abstracts of the anthropological and physical work on Brenham
done since 1890, with full citations, serious researchers may wish to try contacting Bernd
Pauli via the meteorite list.

CA. 645 CE - IMPACT IN DYFED(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc052402.html - Melfyn Thomas, 2002
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc071502.html - Alistair McBeath, 2002

CA. 679 CE - DESTRUCTION OF COLDINGIHAM MONASTERY(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc081597.html - Phil Burns, 1997
Possible lightening strike on tall structure

CA. 838 CE - IMPACT IN BALTIC AND DEATH BY LOCAL TSUNAMI(?)
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc033099.html - Trevor Palmer, 1999
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce120500.html - James Palmer & Trevor
Palmer, 2000
For possible mention in contemporary Chinese astronomical records, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc010301.html

CA. 800 CE - TUNGUSKA TYPE IMPACT AT KEY MARCO, FLORIDA(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET airburst strongly suspected
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce010702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2001-2002

CA. 1000 CE +/- 100 - DESTRUCTION OF MAJOR NATIVE AMERICAN CENTER
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce090400.html - E.P. Grondine, 2000

2 SEPTEMBER, 1311 CE - ENGLAND
Gleam enduring many hours, trees burned, church burned
Possible lightening strike on tall structure
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc022800.html - Roberto Gorelli, 1997

1338 CE - AQUILEIA, NORTHERN ITALY
Lands burned by fire which fell from the sky
No tall structure mentioned
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc022800.html - Roberto Gorelli, 1997

CA. 1321-1368 CE - ERH RIVER FALL IN CHINA(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
"Meteorite Falls in China and Some Related Human Casualty Events."
Meteoritics 29, 864-871, Kevin Yau, Paul Weissman, & Don Yeomans - 1994
This work is not available online. For extracts, including mention of other
very small impacts, see:
http://www.oberlin.edu/library/sciencelib/geo117/group9/group9.html
http://www.100megsfree4.com/farshores/ameteo.htm

1450 CE - MISS IN WABAR, SAUDI ARABIA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: IRON
http://minerals.usgs.gov/east/wynn/3wabar.shtml - Jeff Wynn & Gene
Shoemaker, 1997

1490 CE - CH'ING-YANG FALL KILLS OVER 10,000 (POSSIBLY HAIL)(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
"Meteorite Falls in China and Some Related Human Casualty Events."
Meteoritics 29, 864-871 Kevin Yau, Paul Weissman, & Don Yeomans - 1994
Article not available online. For extracts, including other very small
impacts, see:
http://www.oberlin.edu/library/sciencelib/geo117/group9/group9.html
http://www.100megsfree4.com/farshores/ameteo.htm

5 APRIL 5, 1800 CE - NORTH AMERICA(?)
Fall of a large meteorite accompanied by earthquake and overthrow of forest
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc022800.html - Roberto Gorelli, 2000

9 OR 19 NOVEMBER, 1819 CE - CANADA AND NORTH OF U.S.
Black rain joined with bolides, tremors of earthquake, and obscuration of
the sky
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc022800.html - Charles Fort, 1919;
Roberto Gorelli, 1997

11 NOVEMBER, 1836 CE - MISS AT MACAU, RIO GRANDE DO NORTE, BRAZIL
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: STONE, Olivine-bronzite chondrite (H5), veined, 26.27 %
total iron
http://www.meteoritesales.com/met_m.htm - Ken Regelman
After the appearance of a brilliant meteor, followed by detonations, a
shower of stones, some said to weigh from 11lb to 80lb, but most the size of
doves' eggs, fell near the mouth of the river Assn, killing several cattle.

30 JANUARY, 1868 CE - MISS AT PULTUSK, POLAND
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: STONE CHONDRITE
http://www.resologist.net/lands221.htm - Charles Fort, 1923
http://www.meteoriteguy.com/pultusk.htm
http://www.meteoriteguy.com/pultuskslices.htm

8-9 OCTOBER, 1871 CE - GREAT LAKES FIRES(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET, based on 1 recovered sample, possibly COMET BIELA
Air burst leading to fires?
http://www.angelfire.com/mi2/gfmeteor/background.htm#top - Ken Rieli
http://www.angelfire.com/mi2/gfmeteor/evidence.htm

3 FEBRUARY 3, 1882 CE - MISS AT MÖCS, HUNGARY
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: STONE Olivine-hypersthene chondrite (L6), veined, 21.81 %
total iron
http://www.resologist.net/lands221.htm - Charles Fort, 1923
http://www.meteoritesales.com/met_m.htm - Ken Regelman
other reports of over 100,000 stones.

24 FEBRUARY 24, 1885 CE - 37° N.,170° E., PACIFIC OCEAN
Red inflamed sky, blinding mass fell on the ocean and lifted a large mass of
water
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc022800.html - Charles Fort, 1919;
Roberto Gorelli, 1997

30 JUNE, 1908 CE - MISS (2 DEAD) AT TUNGUSKA, RUSSIA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET strongly suspected
Summary of current research and internet resources:
http://www-th.bo.infn.it/tunguska/ - another excellent Italian research
effort

10 AUGUST, 1930 CE - MISS AT RIO CURACA IN JUNGLE OF BRAZIL
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET strongly suspected
http://www.xtec.es/recursos/astronom/craters/amazonase.htm
- Leonid Kulik, 1931; N.Vasilyev & G.V. Andreev, 1989;
Mark Bailey, D.J.Markham, S. Massai, J.E. Scriven, 1995;
Duncan Steel, 1995
http://www.meteor.co.nz/feb96_2.html
http://www.anomalist.com/reports/tunguska.html - Mark Bailey, 1995; Patrick
Huyghe, 1996

11 DECEMBER, 1935 CE - MISS IN RUPUNUNI REGION OF BRITISH GUYANA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN, but one capable of creating airburst
http://www.xtec.es/recursos/astronom/craters/amazonase.htm - Serge A.
Korff, 1935

12 FEBRUARY, 1947 CE - MISS AT SIKHOTE ALIN IN KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: IRON
http://www.arm.ac.uk/paseg/Sikhote-Alin-1947.html - E. L. Krinov, Valentin
Tsvetkov
http://www.usm.maine.edu/~planet/galbtxt.html
http://www.alaska.net/~meteor/SAinfo.htm

1972 CE - MISS IN SOUTH WEST PACIFIC(?)
http://www.llnl.gov/planetary/pdfs/Threat/02-Nemtchinov.pdf
http://www.llnl.gov/planetary/pdfs/Threat/02-Boslough.pdf

10 AUGUST, 1972 CE - MISS BY GREAT DAYLIGHT FIREBALL
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET strongly suspected

http://www.astrosurf.com/lombry/meteores-anomalies2.htm
(I have not found on the internet as an mpeg file the very impressive movie
of this near miss, and I do not know if anyone has calculated when this
object will return to intercept the Earth.)

1 FEBRUARYT, 1994 - WESTERN PACIFIC
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/astronomy/classified_impacts_000502.ht
ml
Edward Tagliaferri
FOR US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE DECLASSIFICATION ALSO SEE:
http://www.permanent.com/ref-so-5.htm#1 - Pete Worden
http://www.permanent.com/ref-so-5.htm#9 - Doug ReVelle
http://www.permanent.com/ref-so-5.htm#3 - Grant Stokes

RECENT UPPER ATMOSPHERE DETONATIONS OF IMPACTORS (BOLIDES):
http://phobos.astro.uwo.ca/~pbrown/usaf.html

18 JANUARY, 2000 TAGISH LAKE
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET based on multiple samples recovered
http://phobos.astro.uwo.ca/~pbrown/tagish/

CLASS 9 DEFINITION: REGIONAL DEVASTATION
"A collision capable of causing regional devastation."
CURRENT FREQUENCY ESTIMATE (adopted by the International Astronomical
Union):
"Such events occur between once per 1,000 years and once per 100,000 years."

CLASS 9 SUSPECTED(?) AND CONFIRMED HISTORIC IMPACT EVENTS AS OF JUNE 2002:

DATE UNKNOWN: ENLIL'S PICKAX IMPACT(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
Crater identified by Sharad Masters, 2001 -
http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fnews%2F2001%2F11%2F04%2Fwmet04.xml
http://atlas-conferences.com/cgi-bin/abstract/caiq-15
For other comment on possible dating, possible Harappan immigration into
depopulated area, and myths possibly relating to this impact, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc041702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

CA. 5700 BCE - NINURTA/ASAG IMPACT(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc041702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

CA. MAY 10, 2807 BCE - UTNAPISHTIM/GILGAMESH/ATRAHASIS MEGA-TSUNAMI(?)
So many have worked through the myth materials and flood remains related to
this possible impact and subsequent mega-tsunami that there is not
sufficient space here to cover it all. No less than six versions of the myth
have been preserved: http://www.asa3.org/archive/ASA/200103/0070.html
along with a Hurrian version. Bruce Masse is currently working through the
myth materials, and arrived at 2807 BCE as the date of the Indian Ocean
impact and resulting tsunami

2318-2278 BCE - THE ULLIKUMMI HURRIAN IMPACTOR
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET

Archaeologist Claude Schaeffer (1948) was the first to notice simultaneous
destruction levels in the ancient Near East: Stratigraphie Comparee et
Chronologie de l'Asie Occidentale: IIIe et IIe Millenaires, Oxford
University Press, Oxford & London, 1948. His work then languished:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc022497.html
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc070497.html
until in an attempt to resolve the cause of these destructions, the lead
excavator of the site of Tel Leillan, Harvey Weiss, called in French soil
specialist Marie-Agnes Courty.

By 1997, Courty believed she had identified a local strata of impact origin:
http://personal.eunet.fi/pp/tilmari/tilmari2.htm
though other members of the team strongly argued for volcanic or natural
cyclic climatic effects as the cause of the simultaneous destruction levels.

By 1999, a Hurrian account of a cometary impact had been recovered:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc012099.html - E.P. Grondine, 1999

and for a contemporary illustration of this impact event, see:
http://www.louvre.fr/anglais/collec/ao/sb0004/ao_f.htm - identified, E.P.
Grondine, 2002

For a possible absolute dating of this impact event, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc041702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

Based on the soil record, it appears that the effects of this impact event
may have been regional, and not global in scope. The causes of Near Eastern
droughts are still under debate, and for the current problems caused in
differentiating impact debris from volcanic ash and wind blown top soil,
see: http://www.knowledge.co.uk/sis/abstract/courty.htm

For an attempt at an absolute dating of the droughts during this period,
see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc041702.html - E.P. Grondine

CA. 1500 BCE - INCINERATION OF CITY OF MOHENJO DARO(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET strongly suspected
Site excavators found bodies lying scattered in the streets of "The City of
the Dead", with no evidence of wounds or weapons, and signs of
"vitrification" by intense heat - remains consistent with the air burst of a
cometary impactor of the Tunguska type. These "mysterious" remains, in
combination with heavily nationalistic archaeologies and poorly understood
myths, have lead to a great deal of nonsense. To my knowledge no one is
currently seriously working with either these physical remains or with the
impact myths. Nonetheless, both the physical remains and the myth materials
remain what they are.
http://www.itihaas.com/ancient/contrib2.html
http://personal.eunet.fi/pp/tilmari/tilmari3.htm - Timo Niroma, 1998
http://www.meteorobs.org/maillist/msg19734.html - E.P. Grondine, 2000
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc092600.html - E.P. Grondine, 2000

CA. 635-570 BCE - KAALI LAKE IMPACT
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: IRON
http://www.muinas.ee/ecp/kaali/en/index.html
Ivan Reinvald, 1928-1941; Agu Aaloe, 1955-1980; Lennart Meri, 1976
For an overview, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc062402.html

CA. 300 BCE - DEVASTATION OF AINU PEOPLE OF JAPAN(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc102898.html - E.P. Grondine, 1998
Jomon ends in southern Japan, appearance of Yayoi culture, with Ainu impact
myth. To my knowledge, no one fluent in Japanese is working on these
materials.

CA. 500 CE - IMPACT TSUNAMI HITS WESTERN AUSTRALIA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce053101.html
Ted Bryant, Bob Young, Duncan Steel, 1989-1996

580 CE - IMPACT IN CENTRAL EUROPE(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: FRAGMENT OF COMET
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce082202.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

580 CE - DESTRUCTION OF CITY OF BAZAS AND SURROUNDING REGION
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: FRAGMENT OF COMET
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc081597.html - Phil Burns, 1997
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce082202.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

585 CE - DESTRUCTION OF TWO ISLANDS IN BAY OF BISCAY(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: FRAGMENT OF COMET
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc081597.html - Phil Burns, 1997
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce082202.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

CA. 750 CE - GREAT RAFT FORMATION, LOUISIANA(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
Currently unknown if caused by impact, hurricane, or methane hydrate
explosion
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce090400.html - dating, E.P. Grondine,
2000
(I believe Bob Kobres was the first to raise this possibility, but I can not
find a link)

CA. 1200 CE - BALD MOUNTAINS IMPACT(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
Event leads to migration of Cherokee into depopulated area?
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce090400.html - E.P. Grondine, 2000

CA. 1500 CE - AUSTRALIAN GREAT WALL OF WATER
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNKNOWN
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce053101.html
Ted Bryant, Bob Young, Duncan Steel, 1989-1996
With collapse of Polynesian megalithic cultures on Ponhpei and elsewhere

CLASS 10 DEFINITION: GLOBAL CLIMATIC CATASTROPHE
"A collision capable of causing global climatic catastrophe."
Current stated IAU (International Astronomical Union) frequency estimate:
"Such events occur once per 100,000 years, or less often."

CLASS 10 SUSPECTED(?) AND CONFIRMED HISTORIC IMPACT EVENTS AS OF JUNE 2002:

CA. 3114 BCE -
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET, possibly COMET ENCKE

By 1998, climate researcher Timo Niroma had noticed several simultaneous
events centered around this date: Stonehenge I had been constructed, and the
date was significant in the Mayan Calendar. Niroma had also begun to work
through the myths, in particular hypothesizing on tsunami leading to flood
myths (Battle of Titans?): http://personal.eunet.fi/pp/tilmari/tilmari3.htm

For Mayan records of this event, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce010702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2001:
16 June, 3122 BCE - The First Maize Revealer Partitioner is born
7 December, 3121 BCE - Birth of Lady White (?)
13 August, 3114 BCE - Image made visible at Closed Sky, the First Three StonePlace;
Event for The First Maize Revealed Partitioner
5 February, 3112 BCE - The First Maize Revealed Partitioner enters the sky,
Prepared/Dedicated the Raised Up Sky Place in the North
Set in motion the Raised Up Sky Heart

For Egyptian records of the general climatic collapse,
and destruction by impact of the city of Herakleopolis, see
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce102103.html

25 October, 2360 BCE - GREAT SOUTH AMERICAN FIRE; END OF MAYA FIRST
CREATION(?)
-
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET, possibly COMET ENCKE

Following Peter Schultz's mistake in the identification and dating of the
Rio Cuarto features,
http://usuarios.lycos.es/CRATERES/index.htm
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/05/0509_020509_glassmeteorite.h
tml
Anthropologist Bruce Masse assembled South American folk myths relating to a
great fire:
http://www.msnbc.com/news/373938.asp?cp1=1
http://atlas-conferences.com/cgi-bin/abstract/caiq-36

For Mayan records of this event, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce010702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2001:
8 November, 2360 BCE - Birth of the Red Dwarf(?) Partitioner
25 October, 2360 BCE - Birth of Sun-eyed Torch, The killer of the kings in
the White House, the White Bone House, the ?? of the heavens,
who with fire closed the eye of the Sun-eyed Lord Sun;
"arrived" (struck) at or from "Matawil"
21 October, 2360 BCE - Birth of G1

For a possible Near Eastern dating of this event, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc041702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002

CA 1150 BCE - ATLANTIC IMPACT MEGA-TSUNAMI DEVASTATES COASTAL CENTRAL AND
NORTH AMERICA
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: UNCERTAIN, possibly dates with COMET ENCKE return
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce010702.html - E.P. Grondine, 2001
General migration in Eastern Mediterranean follows

ca. 536 CE - CLIMATE COLLAPSE
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: dates with COMET ENCKE return
Dust loading leads to sub-Roman times becoming sub-Roman. Global climate
collapse and starvation. Possible combination of cometary and volcanic
dust.
"Dendrochronology raises questions about the nature of the AD 536 dust-veil
event", M.G.L. Baillie, The Holocene 4, 2, 212-217, 1994
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce082202.html - E.P. Grondine, 2002
Summation of current research:
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/flash/catastrophe1_script.html
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/flash/catastrophe2_script.html
Current discussion:
http://www.ad536.org/ad536/

CA. 830-875 CE - CLIMATE COLLAPSE DUE TO INTERCEPTION OF COMET DEBRIS
STREAM(?)
TYPE OF IMPACTOR: COMET(?)
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc033099.html - Trevor Palmer, 1999
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce120500.html - James Plamer & Trevor
Palmer,
2000
For Chinese records, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc010301.html

WORK ON RECENT HISTORICAL IMPACTS IN PROGRESS

Information on both tsunami and airburst impact events affecting the Maori
of New Zealand is currently undergoing analysis by Peter Snow. I have also
been informed by Richard Wade that initial data on historical impact events
in Africa will be published in the very near future. Bruce Masse's work on
South American and other myths continues. Ed Sugrue, Annette Kolodny, and
Melissa Ryan are currently working through Native American materials
relating to historical impacts in North East North America. I have also been informed that the
United States' National Academy of Science is working on an impact risk
assessment due in 2003.

The Indian Space Research Organization has suspended its work in translating
and publishing ancient Indian astronomical records and transferred those
funds to military related tasks.

WERE THE IMPACTS PERIODIC?

How is Clube and Napier's original hypothesis that several impact events
were related to the regular returns of Comet Encke holding up? Mike Baillie
has provided a short list of demonstrated periodicity in tree ring data:
"The tree-ring record points to global environmental traumas between 2354
and 2345 BC, 1628 and 1623 BC, 1159 and 1141 BC, 208 and 204 BC and AD 536
and 545...", which appears to show specific support for it. While
archeological excavation data currently seldom provides sufficient time
resolution for astronomical work, some ancient text records are sometimes
pretty adequately dated, particularly those with astronomical references,
with Mayan text records being very date specific indeed. While the 2360 BCE
return of Comet Encke appears to be mentioned by text, and the 1159 BCE
return of the Comet indicated by mega-tsunami, and the 536 CE return
implicated in the climate collapse which occured then, the explosions of the
volcanic island of Thera ca 1628 BCE makes it very difficult to separate out
the data on the effects of any return in this period. For the 208 BCE window
of Comet Encke's return, so far there appears to have been little
archeological evidence recovered of the interception of its debris field,
and in particular no evidence of impact events. But this is only a summation
of current knowledge, and all of this most likely will change significantly
as work on the archaeological record continues.

Almost no work has been done to date on the periodicity of other impacts,
and whether these impacts may relate to the regular return of other comets
or of asteroidal debris streams. No doubt this is due for the most part to
the simple fact that so little reliable data on the impacts themselves has
been recovered to date. If the historical impact record is to be recovered,
money needs to be spent on targeted research in the field.

Bernd Pauli has done very limited work on the regular annual return of
meteorite streams, and I expect that meteoriticist Ken Regelman may take
this work up soon as well.

PREHISTORIC IMPACTS AND MAN

A MASSIVE IMPACT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLOCENE

German rocket scientist and inventor Otto Muck was probably the first to
note a number of geological anomalies indicative of a massive impact event
at the start of the Holocene:
Atlantis gefunden: Kritik und Lösung des Atlantis-Problems, Stuttgart,
Victoria Verlag, 1954

The retired British geologists Derek Allan and Bernard Delair continued with
the assembly of these anomalies in their book, When the Earth Nearly Died,
1995, now published as Cataclysm: Compelling Evidence of a Cosmic
Catastrophe in 9500 B.C., 1997, which contains an exhaustive bibliography.
While the anomalies Allan and Delair list are indicative of impact, their
work has often been used by others to support the most extravagant
astronomical and anthropological claims.

For a review of the book, see Trevor Palmer's comments at:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce102899.html

For North American anthropological restraints on the date of this impact
event, see:
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/ce010702.html

For a possibly related African neolithic site, see:
http://www.colorado.edu/PublicRelations/NewsReleases/1998/Oldest_Astronomical_Megalith_A.html

AN IMPACT WITNESSED BY HOMO ERECTUS

Stone tools have been found at a massive impact crater in Asia which dates
frome some 803,000 years ago: Mid-Pleistocene Acheulean-like Stone
Technology of the Bose Basin, South China; Hou Yamei, Richard Potts, Yuan
Baoyin, Guo Zhengtang, Alan Deino, Wang Wei, Jennifer Clark, Xie Guangmao,
and Huang Weiwen, Science March 3 2000: 1622-1626.
For extracts, see:
http://home.earthlink.net/~exonews/ancients/oldest_stone.htm
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc030600.html

A NARROWING OF THE DNA POOL

Several teams of researchers studying changes in human DNA have recently
noted that there appears to have been a reduction of the human population to
around 100 individuals, but the point in time when this occurred as well as
where it occurred are both not yet adequately constrained enough to allow
tieing it to an impact event.

END OF SUMMARY

Expected fatilities due to starvation through climatic collapse via cometary dust loading could be set minmally at about 1,000,000,000 people. Expected fatalities due to impact mega-tsunami could be set at around 70,000,000 people. The units in this estimates here are "people".

I would not suggest to any astronaut that he undertake an arduous and hazardous mission unless I thought the gains out weighed the risks.

>Well, I'd lump Lidar in with full spectral analysis equipment.<

Lidar power requirements are higher than with other equipment.

>I would give an EML-1 #s 1, 3, A, and B.<
EP - B?
>You mean A? But again you have better Three-Dimensional FOV capability in orbit, which allows for rapid acquisition of objects of interest, and vibrations can be dampened. I think the ISS has a little toy called ARIS used to actively counteract vibrations, possible a technology of interest. As noted, the Hubble does just fine, thank you very much, in the accurate positioning realm, and I have no doubt we could do better here nigh fifteen years on. Too bad it's trapped in the orbit that it's in.<

See the fouling problem set out at the top.

>EPG, we're talking at each other here. I use Hubble and human-tended closer together in my sentence than do you in yours. I would argue that the operational costs are determinable for both types of systems, but that logistically (a value-based argument, not cost), the EML-1 is something we can do more quickly, sustain more easily, and develop a broader array of capabilities for more readily (for Moon AND Mars AND cis-Neptunian space) than a Moon-based infrastructure. Both should be built in time, and even more as I've consistently maintained, but right now we, humanity, have a lot of constraints of what we're capable of achieving right now.
<

Hubble has required what, 5 trips, 5 shuttle launches, just for that simple system? What is needed for impactor detection is high precision rapid pointing, large CCDs, large power supplies, large computational capabilities, high bandwidth communications – too much for EML

>Now, if you design a vehicle that has a 6 km/s dV capability you can:
-get to GEO and back (LEO) from ISS
-service most MEO and HEO orbits (some LEO?)
-get to EML-1 and back.
-get from EML-1 to GEO and back
-get to the Moon's surface and back
-get to Mars (or anywhere else in deep space)
If you have fuel stockpiled/available at each of ISS, EML-1, and the Moon you only need 4 km/s dV capability to do all of the above.<

This is what Mazanek called for his Moon based mission architecture – but I still like my architecture better. The big questions are water at the Moon’s poles, and then whether either cryogenic H/O or peroxide/alcohol fuel cycles offer advantages without constraints,
Otherwise, the cheap way to go is with hypergolics.

>The planet hunters will probably be some of the easiest to sell on Lunar facilities.<

Considering that the Congress killed NASA SETI moneys several years ago, I would not bring it up as a consideration.

<<Periodicity >
>Well, I'm figuring that they're going to have to actually go out and date real samples<

This dating can be done robobtically, but right NOW we need to increase NASA crater counting money, for Chapman and group in Arizona – if they can’t do it fast alone, MIT, Princeton, or Carnegie Mellon AI image analyst teams should be brought in, perhaps via the net supporting all current NASA crater counting efforts –

The cross counting for the different solar system bodies will allow the “planetary accretion” (impact) rate to be determined right fast –

>MSX? Please refresh me on that one. <

Air Force has a problem with small (13-20 kiloton) upper atmosphere deteonations setting off early warning systems. Problem gets worse for ABM systems. Do a search on “Worden” or “Leslie Johnson”.

>As for LEO, I don't see why something can't be bolted on the ISS relatively quickly. Probably of limited use, but what do we have to lose finding out?<

I agree completely. Canadian NESS telescope from Ontario could be provided for ISS use immediately upon NASA request.

Final point. If we could get NASA to sell one day exclusive data (image) rights for the 2 Mars Exploration Rovers to either NBC, CNN, Fox, ABC, or CBS (Viacom) media conglomerates, plus maybe limited overseas media conglomerates, we could get some kind of handle on the possibility of privately funding long range Mars rovers. If these rovers can be done privately, back contamination hazard could probably be either defined or elminated via private secotr efforts, with no public funding.

Good hearing from you,
EP