If the new government we've installed asks us to leave, it's going to be hard to say no. In my typical wishy-washy liberal fashion, I see good reasons for both staying and leaving, although I tend to prefer the latter. I suspect the insurgency is picking up their attacks now because they DON'T want us to leave. The violence hardens our position and terrifies the elected government. It keeps us in a very sticky position and they're willing to sacrifice to the last Iraqi to keep us there.

This explains why the insurgency is doing as much as it can to provoke civil war as it is to kill Americans. The one thing all the legitimate factions in Iraq can agree on is that they want us to leave, but they are afraid of what might happen if we do. If they agree on asking us to leave, and we do, the insurgency is left without an issue. It's like the Palestinian conflict, regardless of how you feel about the Israel/Palestine struggle, Islamic fundamentalism/Arab nationalism NEEDS Israel. If it didn't exist it would have to invent it.

If the situation improves to the point where the elected Iraqi government asks us to leave, Bush would have the perfect excuse to "cut and run". He'll take it in a heartbeat.