...it just probably not as devious as we'd like it to be.

The Miami 7 bust was a legit one, I don't believe it's a scheme to distract attention from other, more sinister activities. Having said that, these guys, although dangerous, are not any part of the international enemies arrayed against us. Stopping them was important and will undoubtedly save lives, but it is not a lasting victory in any war on terror.

No, I can't rule out anything you say, no one can, but I personally don't think it's the case. Our policy in Iraq is just as much a result of stupidity as it is design. The situation on the ground turned out very differently than the administration expected, and right now it's mostly just reacting to events rather than driving them. The October Surprise scenario isn't necessarily a deliberate cynical plan initiated by the administration to hold on to power in Congress, although it would also be safe to say that that aspect of any plan being considered is going to take political events into the calculation.

I don't believe these are evil men, they really think they are doing the right thing, but they also do not operate in a vacuum. Policies emerge in a complex environment with a lot of stakeholders. They are also guided by personal ideologies and political commitments that have a tendency to far outlive their usefulness. As the situation becomes more and more desperate, unfortunate decisions are made and men paint themselves into corners they can't get out of.

Do you recall the scene in "The Maltese Falcon" where the Fatman and the Gunsel have the drop on Sam Spade, and are threatening him to give up the location of the Bird?

Spade realizes that his captors dare not kill him while he holds the secret, but they cannot get the secret out of him by torture, all they can do is kill him. As long as he is willing to die and can resist being made helpless for torture, the bad guys cannot force him to talk.

Caspar Gutman instantly analyzes the situation and responds,

"That's an attitude, sir, that calls for the most delicate judgement on both sides--because as you know, sir, in the heat of action men are likely to forget where their best interests lie and let their emotions carry them away."