Like I said, time will tell which of us is more closely correct
I contend that you're wrong and you contend that I'm wrong. Time will tell. We can post long statements to one another until our fingers fall off and it won't mean a thing. Events will unfold and there will surely be surprises for both sides of the issues.
Many of the things that are happening around the world today are still fallout from the collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union a couple years later. It'll probably be many years from now before we'll know how things turn out. As an example of historical perspective, perhaps we should take a longer view. Back around 1976, someone asked Chairman Mao of his opinion of the French Revolution. His answer was, "It's too soon to tell."