All we need is a 0.5% shortfall.
1/2 of 1% shortage will cause massive disruptions in the price of petroleum products and availability. Will be very hard on the global economies as well as individual countries.
And, as I've said, as China comes on line as a major consumer, that will put even more pressure on price and availability. I've been told that until recently China was exporting gasoline to the US West Coast, but hasn't for a while.
As Rose Roseannadanna used to say, "It's always something!"
Arf