Flame — HabitableZone

Flame » in reply to Humor aside, Geoff's response was pathetic.

No, needing an explanation is pathetic
gbaikie — (archived)

Now, for me to actually "feel" any need to explain is somewhat pathetic.
A internet search, keyword: "RAY C. FAIR "

"This book isn't really about predicting presidential elections -- even though it goes to great detail on how to do just that. This book is really about giving an accessible account of how to use statistics/econometrics to study questions we face in society or daily life. Presidential elections is a clever device/examplar to illustrate his ideas, but other issues are covered as well (e.g., value of wine, forecasts of extra-marital affairs, and more standard econ stuff like interest rates and inflation)."

"I came across this book by doing an Internet search on Presidential election forecasting models. By far the best was Ray Fair's model, as it accurately predicted the outcome in 18 of the past 21 elections.
...
The book is not just about Presidential elections; it also addresses the following issues:

1)Who is more likely to engage in extramarital affairs;
2)How to forecast the quality of a new wine;
3)How to forecast grades in a college level economics class;
4)How to predict by how much people slow down with age
5)How to forecast short term interest rates; and
6)How to forecast inflation. "
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0804745099/103-6183723-6359842?v=glance

Maybe someday I'll read the book, in the meantime, I think that Bush will do better than what Mr Fair is predicting- it's going to be a landside- Bush is going to win both California and New York.
And btw, Mr Fair is probably is a "Kerry Supporter" in the sense that he is being conservative in his prediction.
And another Btw, I agree with the sentiment that what is more important than the election is the present melt down of the major media- now that's truely pathetic.

Log in or register to post.

The whole thread (55 posts)