Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to re: global warming drivers

re: global warming drivers

The data you've presented certainly argues that there is an approximately 100k yr temperature cycle and that it is highly correlated with CO2 concentrations. The periodicity and shape of these curves (a sharp spike followed by a gradual decline) suggests some threshold is reached that kicks off a process which quickly saturates, and then gradually returns to an equilibrium which eventually breaks down to start the process over again. Your observation that warming might drive the CO2 concentration is not unreasonable, but it is not necessarily true either.

My guess is that there are at least two processes working against each other here, perhaps a gradual rise in CO2 levels and a sudden release or absorption of oceanic carbonates triggered by some temperature threshold. In any case, There is no measureable time lag between these two levels visible at the resolution of the data. The periodicity argues for some astronomical engine behind the pattern, I find it difficult to come up with any other mechanism to support it.

But we all know that there has been a wide temperature variation throughout earth's history. This is not news, and we also know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The injection of large amounts of CO2 due to deforestation or industrial activity at the peak of the cycle may interrupt this process, and send it in another direction altogether. Or perhaps, the cooling and decarbonation process is already underway and it is unstoppable no matter what we do. The question remains, can our activities initiate a transient event that will cause drastic changes in a short time scale? By transient changes, I mean, enough heat to disrupt our agriculture and settlement patterns. This is not an unreasonable assumption and it is not negated by what happens every hundred thousand years or so. We do not need an ice age or a Venus scenario to get into trouble. All we need is a temperature variation on the order of the "noise" in your graph, but compressed into a shorter time span.

What I would like to know is how rapidly are CO2 and temperature levels changing now. Are we bucking the cooling trend which is supposed to be starting soon? I am interested in what will be happening in the next hundred years, not the next hundred thousand. I am not a climatologist, I am not qualified to critically examine these studies, so I have to rely on the idea of scientific consensus and peer review, plus my own general scientific background to guide my instincts.

I can see how you may questions about the validity of the data and its interpretation, what I cannot understand is how you can so easily dismiss it as some sort of political meme run amuck. I cannot imagine a cabal of Green scientists subconsciously (or even deliberately and maliciously) slanting their studies in order to bring down capitalism and thrust the world back into some bucolic pastoral fantasy world. It just doesn't make sense.

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