When dealing with details,* I can't think of a lot of major accurate predictions from either side. There were some on the Left who did say that no WMD would be found, but a vast majority on that side assumed they were there, but that war was the wrong way to disarm Saddam.
There were a LOT of surprises. The lack of major WMD facilities surprised the Bush administration a lot more than it would have if he had known that all along and lied about it. Everyone was amazed by how quickly the Iraq army folded up and disappeared into the civilian population. One reason post-combat planning suffered is that "post combat" was supposed to be a lot further in the future. Dire predictions about blown dams, burning oil wells, Arab nations pouring into the war, and endless street fighting with the Iraqi army, didn't pan out at all. Maybe a lot of preparation, some luck, and maybe a possible insurgent plan already in place on Saddam's part. The street fighting emerged later as part of the insurgency, but apparently it isn't that successful for them as a direct tactic.
The "chop off the head" approach tried at the war's beginning was intended to kill Saddam and his chiefs, and hopefully break the back of the Baathists. In hindsight, it doesn't look like it would have worked, since Saddam's imprisonment doesn't seem to have caused a lot of Baathists to lose their enthusiasm. Sometimes I wonder what would have happened if we'd killed Saddam instead of having him biding his time in prison. Maybe he and the Baathists are thinking about Nelson Mandela's comeback (although the reasons for imprisonment in that case were vastly different morally.)
The civil war many saw coming never popped up, but a lot can still happen in the next ten years. Obviously, the Sunnis are trying to fight for their remaining power, while the Shiites and others, in the majority, may have seen that they just have to hold out for winning at the ballot box. We'll see what develops after an election or two. America's civil war was almost a century after our first election.
*That is, something a little more specific than "the war will go well" or "the war will go badly."
Current Events » in reply to Not trying to pick a fight (for once today), genuinely curious.
You know, now that you mention it...
The whole thread (59 posts)
- Rumsfeld makes excuses for administration's incompetence
- Rumsfeld makes invalid excuses for administration's incompetence
- So is the armour adequate or not?
- Once again you prove your ignorance of military history
- Looking like another MSM soundbite attack.
- Meanwhile: 1,276