re: So if it's not a wag-the-dog thing....
Definitely not. No one would prefer more for this war to go away quietly than the Bush administration. In fact, the ones who tend to benefit the most by it continuing indefinitely are the terrorists. The war has become a second Israel/Palestine red herring for them, and they will do anything they can to prolong it indefinitely. The last thing Al-Quaeda and company want is for us to stop playing their game by their rules. They can afford the losses much better than we can. And we make much better targets when we wear red coats and march in straight lines.
How many times do I have to tell you guys, the Bush administration is not evil, they're just dumber than a sack full of hammers.