Many Iraqis may be united in their hatred of the Americans, but the events on the ground demonstrate that they have not united to fight them. Instead they fight each other, Shiia against Sunni, secular against fundamentalist, Arab against Kurd, Pro- and Anti Baathist. Add to this common criminals, local tribal conflicts, and eventually, opportunists who will attempt to take power simply because they want it. You will note I have not even mentioned Al-Quaeda and foreigners who are determined to frustrate American plans for the country and the region, and who all have their own agendas.

The Shiia have the numbers, but the Sunni's have the organization left over from the previous regime. Whichever side which will eventually show signs of victory will provoke support, and perhaps intervention from outside. Sunni Arabs from the entire middle east will fear a Shiia victory and an Iranian presence in the country, the Iranians will do whatever they can to help their Shiite brothers, and they have the military might to actually invade. The Syrians, Turks and Iranians all have a stake in destroying the prosperous Kurdish state emerging in northern Iraq. In short, it is impossible to predict what will happen when the Americans leave, or what will eventually emerge, but it is almost certain that it will be bloody.

If there were any way we could prevent these horrors I would support Bush's "stay the course" option, but it would require tripling the American presence there and clamping down violently to restore order. Not only are we not up to this type of brutal occupation, we do not have the resources to do it, our forces are already spread thin and exhausted from years of demoralizing combat and even our equipment is being consumed faster than it can be replaced. Without a draft and a massive expansion of the armed forces, and grotesque expenditures and the economic consequences that represents, it will not happen. Neither will the American people condone the oppressive brutality it would require now to force order. No doubt others will have no qualms about doing it, though.

We cannot prevent the coming collapse of Iraq, all we can do is postpone it. The problem has festered because from the very beginning, our leaders have counted on everything happening exactly the way they expected it to, ignoring the advice of their own military and intelligence experts, not to mention their critics, both foreign and domestic. They also failed to realize that there were powerful forces in the region able and determined to do anything they could to frustrate our objectives. Other than dealing with Saddam's legions, there was never a plan or a strategy, at least one that survived more than a few months of exposure to reality. WMDs, elections, democracy, overthrowing the tyrant, freedom, liberal secular government, economic reconstruction; every single excuse was tried and abandoned in turn.

Now we are told that if we leave the, region will erupt into chaos. That is the most absurd assessment of all. Chaos is what we have, it may get worse if we leave, but it will never stop until we do.