Your scenario sounds about right
And even though I HAVE thought about it, I don't want to.
We know already how quickly an area can become a disaster zone.
I've had visions of this for years. (Even been in one.)
As soon as the trucks stop delivering across America, we're screwed.
Another problem are the EMP weapons being developed.
I read the Chinese have been fiddling with the chips inside our computers and have been able to shut down some of our most prioritized systems already.
I can't verify anything in this article, but it's written by an award winning journalist and it DOES give you pause for <thought.>