Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to 2004 MN4 now Torino scale 4 !!!!

Friday 13th...
Nick Hoffman — (archived)

After events moved so fast on Christmas Eve (impact probability raised from 0.3% to 1.6%), some of the folks in the business devoted their Christmas Day to this.

The result? The size estimates have come down a fraction, so it'll be a little bit less of a bang, but the probability has gone up again to 2.2%

With the new size, it won't hit Torino scale 5 until it's 15.5% impact probability, at which point people really will get excited.

For your diary, the impact time is scheduled for Friday 13th April, 2029, at 21:21: 36 UTC. As best I can work out, the approach vector will be from behind the Earth's orbit (good, because this reduces the closing velocity). The hemisphere at risk is America/Atlantic/Europe/NW Africa. Chances of a Marine impact are more than 50% for this Hemisphere and the location most at risk is around 40 degrees West and in the northern hemisphere, as best as my schoolboy trigonometry fits with interplanetary dynamics (i.e. Mid-Atlantic...)

Expect a LOT of measurement over the next few days and weeks, since MN4 is currently passing reasonably close to Earth and we can get some good measurements with a range of parallax. Expect plenty of updates!

Log in or register to post.

The whole thread (40 posts)