Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to Be interesting to compare the effects to a major volcanic eruption

Yellowstone on the Torino Scale
Nick Hoffman — (archived)

As a random expaectation of "sometime in the next 450,000 years", Yellowstone would barely rate Torino 1

if we could forecast it to within the next 4500 years, it would be a Torino equivalent of 2. It would have to be pretty likely within 100 years before it hit Torino 4. At 45 years' warning it becomes Torino 5, and of course once it's "certain" it becomes a civilisation-threatening 9.

However, the Torino scale wasn't designed to be used quite like this, but it does show the relative risk. The Torino scale applies when we know exactly when something may happen, but not how likely it is. In contrast, Yellowstone is very likely, but we don't know at all when.

For reference, a Yellowstone eruption would have ~20 times the energy and "impact" as 2004 MN4.

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