re: More accurate numbers...

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re: More accurate numbers...

Mark Eby — 12/25/2004 10:41:11 PM (archived)

The variation in megatonnage you mentioned is probably due to shifts in size estimates. It is now listed as 390m whereas I know it was well over 400m earlier. A shift from 430 to 390 is sufficient to cover the megaton range you sited. While your source correctly looked at the over pressure range as a damage area rather than the crater size, I doubt everyone would be killed in that area so his fatality estimates are probably high for the given population concentrations. Do you know if he was being deliberately conservative by including only a nearly certain kill range? Of course population density varies considerably and we could easily be looking at many millions of people for a land hit and possibly even more if striking the ocean near highly populated coasts. If this thing goes out of site this high on the risk scale people need accurate info on things like this to accurately comprehend and prioritize this hazard.

I'm pretty sure some of the NEO papers at the Ames site have detailed estimates on things like this and I'm going to read up on this stuff ove rthe Holidays. I'll bet Steele has some info in "Target Earth" as well if I can find the right box.

Regards,
Mark

The whole thread (40 posts)

2004 MN4 now Torino scale 4 !!!! - Nick Hoffman - 12/25/2004 11:45:31 AM
- Rats, Just Fell Off The Torino Scale - Mark Eby - 12/28/2004 2:25:07 AM
  - Back On Yet Again - Mark Eby - 12/31/2004 4:57:32 PM
  - Astronomers rule out asteroid risk in 2029 - SteveS - 12/28/2004 2:17:00 PM
    - And Still Very Close (Another Image Try) - Mark Eby - 12/29/2004 1:58:17 AM
    - But Not Later - Mark Eby - 12/29/2004 12:13:06 AM
      - Close Approaches - SteveS - 12/29/2004 1:36:25 AM
    - Well, that was exciting. (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 12/28/2004 7:05:39 PM
- 2.7% today... - Nick Hoffman - 12/27/2004 11:54:48 AM
  - An interesting geological issue... - Nick Hoffman - 12/27/2004 11:59:29 AM
- Key NEO Report Links - Mark Eby - 12/26/2004 5:05:12 AM
- Friday 13th... - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 1:43:16 AM
- You know it's the one we don't see that's going to get us. (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 12/25/2004 7:36:08 PM
  - Only If We Act Responsibly - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 7:54:21 PM
- re: 2004 MN4 - Nick Hoffman - 12/25/2004 12:36:54 PM
  - re: 2004 MN4 - Larry J - 12/25/2004 1:26:53 PM
    - Don't forget that damage and megatons don't scale directly - Tom Brosz - 12/25/2004 7:38:03 PM
      - re:Scaling - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 12:30:45 AM
        
        Be interesting to compare the effects to a major volcanic eruption - Tom Brosz - 12/26/2004 1:44:00 AM
        
        Yellowstone on the Torino Scale - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 3:21:46 AM
        
        So We Are Talking About A Major Global Chill Event? - Mark Eby - 12/26/2004 3:30:45 AM
        
        Chill but not Freeze... ...Probably - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 3:50:17 AM
        
        Some "apples and oranges." - Tom Brosz - 12/27/2004 8:30:40 PM
        
        How Much of That Area Was IHL Deadly? - Mark Eby - 12/26/2004 3:21:24 AM
        
        re: How Much of That Area Was IHL Deadly? - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 3:36:48 AM
        
        Don't count the Mormons out just yet... - Tom Brosz - 12/27/2004 8:27:38 PM
      - More accurate numbers... - Larry J - 12/25/2004 8:39:01 PM
        
        re: More accurate numbers... - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 10:41:11 PM
        
        re: More accurate numbers... - Larry J - 12/26/2004 6:01:48 PM
      - Of course - Larry J - 12/25/2004 8:30:39 PM
    - 2004 MN4 - Just about the bestest Christmas present a boy ever had - E.P. Grondine - 12/25/2004 4:07:45 PM
      - What are the risks of impacts? - Robert Clark - 1/1/2005 3:18:06 PM
      - re: On Something We Can Partially Agree - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 7:52:23 PM
        
        Oh f***... - Adam - 12/26/2004 2:05:44 AM
        
        Thank you - E.P. Grondine - 12/25/2004 8:32:33 PM
      - If You Ever Bothered To Study Actual Detection Data - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 7:19:51 PM
        
        uhhh, Mark, your condescension reveals your ignorance - E.P. Grondine - 12/25/2004 8:31:06 PM
        
        Project Argos... - Adam - 12/26/2004 2:10:33 AM
        
        It's definetely going to be a man-machine collaboration - E.P. Grondine - 12/26/2004 3:17:20 AM
        
        Your Most Recent Comments & The Actual Data Make The Situation Clear - Nuff Said (n/t) - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 10:22:35 PM

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