Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to re: 2004 MN4

re: 2004 MN4
Larry J — (archived)

I've seen estimates that the object may be 400 meters long with an impact energy in on the order of 1600 megatons. That's about the same as detonating the entire US nuclear weapons arsenal. That would do more than local damage. If it hit on land, the crater would be many kilometers across. Meteor Crater in Arizona is 1.2 kilometers in diameter and it's estimated that the rock was 80 feet in diameter. An object that size has an impact energy of roughly 1 megaton. 2004 MN4 is MUCH more dangerous. The damage might be worse if it hit in water (a more likely scenario). Large tsunami type waves could be generates over a wide area.

As for the actions to take, here's my list:

1. Use every available resource to nail down the orbit to the finest detail possible and reevaluate the impact risk. The refined orbital data may well suggest the object will miss in 2029 but could still be a threat at a later date.

2. If it still poses a threat, conduct a NEAR type mission to determine the composition and characteristics. A loose conglomerate object would require different deflection strategies than a solid object. It's vital to know this.

3. At the same time, begin developing the vehicles (booster, intercepter, etc) necessary to try deflecting the object. Exactly what we'd need will depend a great deal on the composition, which in turns drives diversion strategies.

If step #1 holds up and this proves to be for real, then the entire space program may be getting a new set of priorities, not just for the US but for every nation with space capabilities. Somehow, I doubt funding will be an issue.

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