re: 2004 MN4

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re: 2004 MN4

Nick Hoffman — 12/25/2004 12:36:54 PM (archived)

FYI, if the impact probability rises to around 6%, this would become Torino 5.
After that there's nowhere to go but Torino 9, when it stares us in the eye!

Of course, I agree with the rational probability that this object is (a) very unlikely to strike and (b) likely to only do local/regional damage if it does.

Nonetheless, this one should make a few folk sit up and take notice. Imagine if we really did have 25 years warning. What programmes would we initiate?

My guess:-

A 10-year programme to build a proper heavy lift booster
A 5-year programme to rendezvous with this object and begin mass-driver experiments
A further 5-year programme to install numerous mass drivers

If that didn't work, 5 years of panic, including some options to try to fragment it - A 100m body would cause only local damage. At this scale, the "shotgun" problem is not so bad, IMHO. I wouldn't like to try it with anything bigger, though!

Ah, Merry Christmas and 25 Happy New years...

The whole thread (40 posts)

2004 MN4 now Torino scale 4 !!!! - Nick Hoffman - 12/25/2004 11:45:31 AM
- Rats, Just Fell Off The Torino Scale - Mark Eby - 12/28/2004 2:25:07 AM
  - Back On Yet Again - Mark Eby - 12/31/2004 4:57:32 PM
  - Astronomers rule out asteroid risk in 2029 - SteveS - 12/28/2004 2:17:00 PM
    - And Still Very Close (Another Image Try) - Mark Eby - 12/29/2004 1:58:17 AM
    - But Not Later - Mark Eby - 12/29/2004 12:13:06 AM
      - Close Approaches - SteveS - 12/29/2004 1:36:25 AM
    - Well, that was exciting. (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 12/28/2004 7:05:39 PM
- 2.7% today... - Nick Hoffman - 12/27/2004 11:54:48 AM
  - An interesting geological issue... - Nick Hoffman - 12/27/2004 11:59:29 AM
- Key NEO Report Links - Mark Eby - 12/26/2004 5:05:12 AM
- Friday 13th... - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 1:43:16 AM
- You know it's the one we don't see that's going to get us. (n/t) - Tom Brosz - 12/25/2004 7:36:08 PM
  - Only If We Act Responsibly - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 7:54:21 PM
- re: 2004 MN4 - Nick Hoffman - 12/25/2004 12:36:54 PM
  - re: 2004 MN4 - Larry J - 12/25/2004 1:26:53 PM
    - Don't forget that damage and megatons don't scale directly - Tom Brosz - 12/25/2004 7:38:03 PM
      - re:Scaling - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 12:30:45 AM
        
        Be interesting to compare the effects to a major volcanic eruption - Tom Brosz - 12/26/2004 1:44:00 AM
        
        Yellowstone on the Torino Scale - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 3:21:46 AM
        
        So We Are Talking About A Major Global Chill Event? - Mark Eby - 12/26/2004 3:30:45 AM
        
        Chill but not Freeze... ...Probably - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 3:50:17 AM
        
        Some "apples and oranges." - Tom Brosz - 12/27/2004 8:30:40 PM
        
        How Much of That Area Was IHL Deadly? - Mark Eby - 12/26/2004 3:21:24 AM
        
        re: How Much of That Area Was IHL Deadly? - Nick Hoffman - 12/26/2004 3:36:48 AM
        
        Don't count the Mormons out just yet... - Tom Brosz - 12/27/2004 8:27:38 PM
      - More accurate numbers... - Larry J - 12/25/2004 8:39:01 PM
        
        re: More accurate numbers... - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 10:41:11 PM
        
        re: More accurate numbers... - Larry J - 12/26/2004 6:01:48 PM
      - Of course - Larry J - 12/25/2004 8:30:39 PM
    - 2004 MN4 - Just about the bestest Christmas present a boy ever had - E.P. Grondine - 12/25/2004 4:07:45 PM
      - What are the risks of impacts? - Robert Clark - 1/1/2005 3:18:06 PM
      - re: On Something We Can Partially Agree - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 7:52:23 PM
        
        Oh f***... - Adam - 12/26/2004 2:05:44 AM
        
        Thank you - E.P. Grondine - 12/25/2004 8:32:33 PM
      - If You Ever Bothered To Study Actual Detection Data - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 7:19:51 PM
        
        uhhh, Mark, your condescension reveals your ignorance - E.P. Grondine - 12/25/2004 8:31:06 PM
        
        Project Argos... - Adam - 12/26/2004 2:10:33 AM
        
        It's definetely going to be a man-machine collaboration - E.P. Grondine - 12/26/2004 3:17:20 AM
        
        Your Most Recent Comments & The Actual Data Make The Situation Clear - Nuff Said (n/t) - Mark Eby - 12/25/2004 10:22:35 PM

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