Add another factor.
China - they're going to be putting 6 to 8 million cars on the road shortly. Without retiring any. The US may put 10 million out there every year, but seems to junk 6 to 8 million. (These are not researched numbers, but not complete guesses, either. They're based on a memory which can be faulty, and probably hit the target if not the bullseye.)
That, and Chinas' general development, it going to put more pressure on the world's oil production. Relatively fast.
And very often the price of commodities is based upon demand and competition for the last 1% of production. Such as lumber. If there is a 1% shortfall in production v. demand, the price skyrockets. I suspect it's true for oil, too.
Arf