Current Events — HabitableZone

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re: Oil
Robert — (archived)

It's true that I focused on defining an endpoint so successful that it brought down the economy of the Middle East. It's necessary to define the goal in absolute terms, but that also implicitly defines a line from here to there, containing points along which you can stop. We could let up on the pressure when it seemed to be working, when OPEC was shaken and had learned the meaning of hubris, when the street and the terrorists had to concede, and our client goverments were reminded, that oil dependency forms a two-way relationship; and they acknowledge that as much as we've been sucking their oil, they've been sucking at our wallets. We're symbiotes. Common cause, but far from common ground.

So maybe if the actual goal isn't defined so extremely, the concerns you brought up aren't actually as serious as it might seem. Stopping short of severing full economic relations precludes isolationism, doesn't imply a complete withdrawal of US interests in the ME as benefits Israel, etc. If the lesson sinks in that we're handcuffed together, US influence might be enhanced (when you have no choice but to dance with a 900-pound gorilla, let the gorilla lead).

BTW, I posted without writing down a thought that could make a difference too. The cost of boycotting "Arab oil" would drop over time as you yourself have outlined, as the increased cost of gasoline stimulates development of cheaper alternatives. That's a compensatory factor that would mitigate the possible harm to our own economy.

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